A karshen mako, Dr. Tom Frieden, tsohon darektan Cibiyar Kula da Cututtuka da Cututtuka (CDC), ya ba da. Maqalar Asabar a cikin Wall Street Journal. Idan kuna da wani tunanin cewa jami'an kiwon lafiyar jama'a suna cikin wani yanayi na tunani, watakila an hukunta su a cikin shekaru uku da suka gabata, waɗanda ke da ikon koyo ko nuna ma alamar tawali'u - sake tunani. Yana da wahala a tattara mummunan bincike na annoba cikin kalmomi 2,200.
Idan kun karanta wasu odes zuwa irin na soja irin na China da cutar sankara, kun fahimci yashi-ta-hannun yatsa. Annobar ta yi muni sosai har mun rasa rayuka miliyan 20. Masks, kulle-kulle, da alluran rigakafi, duk da haka, sun yi tasiri sosai mun ceci dubun-dubatar rayuka. Kuma idan da kawai za mu rufe fuska, allurar rigakafi, da kullewa da ƙarfi, tare da ƙarin tunanin lokacin yaƙi, da mun ceci yawancin miliyan 20 da muka yi asara.
Hujja da kwarewarsa, mafi girman ingancin kowane ma'auni kuma yana aiki baya don darajar aikinsa. Shugabanni mu ci nasara. Wutsiyoyi da kuka rasa.
Frieden yayi daidai cewa “mafi dacewa hanyar tantance mace-mace daga cutar ita ce kimanta 'yawan mace-mace' - karuwar mace-mace a kan tushen tarihi." Wannan yana guje wa mummunan aiki na rarraba sanadin mutuwa, yana ɗaukar jimillar manufofin cutar, don mai kyau da mara lafiya.
Frieden ya ba da misali da kiyasin mutuwar mutane miliyan 20 a duk duniya, amma sai ya ciyar da sauran labarin yana buga wasannin lamba. Yana nufin amma bai ce waɗannan duk mutuwar Covid ne ba. Ya kasa yin gwagwarmaya tare da manyan bayanai da kimiyya kuma ya manta da ƙara farashin shiga tsakani, gami da gaskiyar cewa wasu daga cikin waɗannan farashin sun wuce kisa. Bai yi ƙoƙarin yin bayanin yadda mutane da yawa suka mutu ba sakamakon abubuwan da ba na Covid ba, gami da sabbin binciken da ke nuna hauhawar mace-macen mata masu juna biyu. Ya kuma kasa magance illolin da ba sa mutuwa kamar tattalin arziki, jaraba, lafiyar hankali, da faɗuwar adadin haihuwa.
Me game da Sweden?
Frieden ya ce duk umarnin shiga tsakani na iyakance mace-mace, musamman a Kanada da Isra'ila, wanda ya ce cikin basira "an yi amfani da abin rufe fuska da kuma rufewa (bisa ingantattun bayanai, na ainihin lokacin) kafin guguwar ta tashi." Amma bai ambaci cewa ƙiyayyar da Sweden ta yi na rufe shago ko tilasta rufe fuska ya haifar da mafi ƙarancin mace-mace a Turai ba. A takaice dai, Sweden ba ta yi abubuwan da Frieden ya yaba ba tukuna sun sami sakamako mafi kyau.
Frieden ya yabi Isra'ila da Kanada amma bai ambaci Sweden ba. Source: OECD.
Ee, Sweden tana jin daɗin ƙididdigar alƙaluma da lafiya. Amma duk da haka ya zarce maƙwabtan Nordic masu irin bayanan martaba. Neman al'ummai, masana tattalin arziki a Johns Hopkins samu kadan ko babu dangantaka tsakanin ƙarfin kullewa da mutuwar Covid. Ko da mutum ya yarda cewa abin rufe fuska da kulle-kulle suna da wasu ƙananan tasirin, ba za a iya cewa sun ƙayyade nasarar manufofin cutar ba.
Labarin a cikin Amurka yana nuna irin rashin ingancin ingancin kulle-kulle. Casey Mulligan da abokan aiki kwatanta jihohin Amurka kuma ya gano cewa "mafi tsananin kulle-kulle bai haifar da ingantacciyar sakamakon kiwon lafiya ba. Amma tsananin martanin da gwamnati ta bayar yana da alaƙa da munin sakamako na tattalin arziki da kuma mafi munin sakamako gabaɗaya." Sun kuma tabbatar da cewa "mutane sun bar jihohin da ke kulle-kulle kuma sun koma jihohin da ba su da tsauraran matakai" da kuma California, wata matashiyar jihar da ta sanya tsauraran matakai, da Florida, tsohuwar jihar da ta fi bude ido, "ta yi daidai da sakamakon lafiya."
Frieden ya yi iƙirarin cewa "masks sun kasance masu tasiri sosai." Duk da haka bai yi magana game da sabon Cochrane Review ba meta-bincike, mafi ƙaƙƙarfan bincike mai ƙarfi da iko har zuwa yau, wanda ke haɗa gwajin sarrafa bazuwar 78 na amfani da abin rufe fuska. Ya samo kawai akasin haka - cewa masks ba su nuna wani tasiri mai amfani ba. Shin da gaske hakan yana da rikitarwa? Kowa ya sanya abin rufe fuska, kuma kwayar cutar ta bazu ko'ina. Kamar yadda kwararrun ƙwayoyin cuta na numfashi suka yi annabta kafin barkewar cutar.
Fa'idodi masu Kumburi, Farashin da Ba a kula da su ba
Ƙunƙarar furcin da Frieden ya yi na kullewa amfanin sun yi daidai da irin gazawarsa na magance babbar matsalarsu halin kaka. Frieden ya ambaci kulawar kiwon lafiya da aka manta amma baya danganta ta da makulli. Sai kawai ya faru. Yana sukar rufe makarantu amma baya saka su a cikin duk wani bincike na fa'ida. Gabaɗaya ya yi watsi da tasirin kulle-kulle akan ma'aunin ma'aunin da ya bayyana na yawan mace-mace.
Haka kuma Frieden bai ambaci tasirin macroeconomic ba, wanda koyaushe yana tasiri lafiya, idan a kaikaice. Bayan dubun-dubatar daloli da aka kashe aka buga a kokarinsu 'maye gurbin' asarar samar da kayayyaki, an bar mu tare da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki mafi muni a cikin shekaru 40, haɓaka mai zurfi, ɓangaren banki mai banƙyama, da kuma rage yawan haɗin gwiwar aiki. Waɗannan ba ɓangarorin da ke faruwa ba ne waɗanda za a iya kawar da su kawai.
Daga nan sai Frieden ya tura manyan bindigogi - ikirarin ceton rayuka da yawa masu girman gaske ba za a iya nufin su sa masu karatu su sallama ba. Yana ikirarin haka
akasarin mutuwar miliyan 20 sun faru ne a cikin mutane biliyan uku da ba a taba yi musu allurar rigakafi ba. Shekarar farko na allurar rigakafi ita ce kiyasta ya hana mutuwar fiye da miliyan 14.
Mun nuna a kan da kuma a kan yadda da'awar ta biyu ta kasance mai ban tsoro. Ya dogara ne akan wani samfurin kwamfuta daga Kwalejin Imperial ta London. Da'awar farko ba ta da masaniyar tsari amma kusan wauta ce.
ƴan abubuwan lura na gabaɗaya sun nuna dalilin da ya sa ba zai yiwu ba. Na ɗaya, duk-abin da ke haifar da wuce gona da iri da mutuwar Covid-19 (duba ƙasa) sun kasance mafi girma a cikin ƙasashe masu tasowa da manyan masu shiga tsakani waɗanda ke da yawan allurar rigakafi kuma mafi ƙanƙanta a cikin ƙananan ƙasashe masu ƙarancin allurar rigakafi.
Kasashe masu samun kudin shiga da ke da adadin allurar rigakafi sun sami ƙarin mutuwar Covid-19 (duba sama). Sun kuma sha wahala mafi muni duk-mutuwar mace-mace (duba ƙasa). Source: Duniyar Mu a Bayanai.
Shin Frieden yana da'awar cewa wani yanki na ilimin taurari na ƙananan adadin mutanen da ba a yi musu allurar rigakafi ba a cikin manyan kudin shiga, al'ummomin da ke fama da alurar riga kafi suna mutuwa amma kusan babu ɗaya daga cikin mafi girman adadin mutanen da ba a yi wa allurar rigakafi ba a cikin ƙarancin kudin shiga, ƙarancin alurar riga kafi?
Ee, babban kudin shiga, al'ummomin da aka yiwa alurar riga kafi sukan zama tsofaffi, kuma masu karancin kudin shiga matasa. Amma bambance-bambancen mace-mace tsakanin kasashe masu tasowa da masu karamin karfi ya fi girma fiye da shekarun da za su iya haifarwa, musamman lokacin da ake lissafin matsayin rigakafin.
Zuƙowa cikin Amurka. Dangane da bayanan hukuma, Amurka ta sami mutuwar mutane 350,555 Covid-19 a cikin 2020 da 475,059 a cikin 2021.
1 Duk da gudanar da alluran rigakafi miliyan 520 a cikin 2021, Covid ya ɗauki 124,504 Kara Ba'amurke yana rayuwa a cikin 2021 fiye da 2020. A takaice dai, tafkin Amurkawan da ba a yiwa rigakafi ya ragu da kusan miliyan 250 a cikin 2021 amma mutuwar Covid ya karu da kashi 35 cikin dari.
Ko duba Scotland, wanda ke kiyaye ɗanɗanan mafi kyawu da cikakkun bayanai bisa ga matsayin rigakafin. Tsakanin Agusta 2021 da Fabrairu 2022, aƙalla 85 kashi na mutuwar Covid na cikin wadanda aka yi wa allurar. A ƙarshen bazara, adadin ya haura kashi 90 cikin ɗari. Ba da daɗewa ba bayan mun nuna hakan, sun daina buga irin waɗannan bayanai.
Source: Kiwon Lafiyar Jama'a Scotland.
Matsakaicin shekarun mutuwar Covid a cikin ƙasashe da yawa yana kusan 80, ko kuma kusan matsakaicin shekarun duk mace-mace. Don haka a fili "mafi yawan mutuwar miliyan 20" Frieden ya ambata ba zai iya kasancewa saboda mace-mace na Covid a cikin waɗanda ba a yi musu allurar ba, idan ba don wani dalili ba sai yawancin mutuwar Covid suna faruwa a cikin tsofaffi, waɗanda ke faruwa a yi musu allurar rigakafi sosai.
Amma hakan yana barin mutuwar ba-Covid ba. Me yasa wadanda ba a yi musu allurar ba za su mutu ba saboda dalilai na Covid? Ba za su yi ba. Akalla a'a saboda ba a yi musu allurar rigakafi ba.
Dole ne kuma mu yi watsi da alama ta hannu. Ko wataƙila Frieden bai gane abin da ya yi ba. Ka tuna, “mafi yawan mutuwar miliyan 20 sun faru ne a cikin mutane biliyan uku da ba a taɓa yin allurar rigakafi ba.” To, kusan dukkan mutane a duniya har zuwa tsakiyar 2021 ba a yi musu allurar rigakafi ba. Kuma akasarin mutane miliyan 20 sun mutu sakamakon rashin Covid. Shin yana kirga duk mace-mace masu yawa a cikin 2020 da wani ɓangare na 2021 - ko daga Covid ko na kulle-kulle ko wani abu - a matsayin "ba a yi allurar rigakafi ba" kafin a sami rigakafin? Da alama ba sequitur.
Bamu gama ba. Ga kasashe da yawa, daga Jamus zuwa Japan da Singapore zuwa Ostiraliya, duka-dukkan-mutuwar mace-mace da kuma mutuwar Covid kawai ya karu bayan sun tura allurar. Duba ƙasa sabon bincike na zahiri na bayanan Jamus. Ya nuna cewa duk ƴan ƙungiyar shekaru sun tsira 2020 da kyau. Sannan a cikin 2021 da 2022, yayin da Jamusawa suka karɓi alluran rigakafi miliyan 191, mace-mace ta fashe a tsakanin kusan dukkanin rukunin shekaru masu girma.
Kuna iya ganin wannan yanayin yawan mace-macen da ake ci gaba da yi a cikin al'ummomin da ke da yawan alurar riga kafi, har ma a cikin Isra'ila, ɗaya daga cikin abubuwan da Frieden ya fi so.
Source: Mutuwa.Watch.
Kamar yadda muka lura a cikin a kwanan nan binciken na mace-macen duniya, tsakanin kasashe masu tasowa da matsakaitan masu samun kudin shiga, duk-abin da ke haifar da yawan mace-mace a shekarar 2022 an danganta shi da yawan adadin allurar rigakafi.
Model Mania
Wadannan hujjojin sun kara da cewa riga-kafin ilmin lissafi da ilmin halitta cewa alluran ba za su iya ceton “rayukan mutane miliyan 14 ba” a cikin “shekara ta farko ta allurar rigakafi kadai.” Da'awar Frieden ta dogara ne akan tsarin kwamfuta mai ban dariya, wanda zai iya fitar da duk abin da kuke so dangane da zato da kuke ciyar da ita. Ba ya buƙatar kama wani abu a cikin duniyar gaske, kuma lalle wannan ba ya.
Samfuran sun tofa abubuwa masu hauka. Idan ba ku ninka duba su akan gaskiya ba, kuna iya kallon wauta. Duka ainihin mace-macen Covid da wadanda ba na Covid sun kasance mafi muni ba bayan allurar rigakafin a cikin 2021-22. A cikin duniyar fantasy na ƙirar kwamfuta, duk da haka, mun kasance cikin shiri don haɓakawa sosai-galactic wanda mafi munin aiki ya kasance babban nasara.
A cikin Disamba, mun bincika wani samfuri daga Asusun Commonwealth, wanda yayi kama da samfurin Imperial Frieden. Masu ƙira na Commonwealth sun yi iƙirarin cewa a cikin wani yanayi na daban na babu allurar rigakafi Amurka za ta sha wahala 4.5 sau fiye da mutuwar Covid a cikin 2021 fiye da na 2020, kuma cikakke 6.9 sau ƙari a cikin 2022 lokacin da bambance-bambancen Omicron suka mamaye. Tun kafin Omicron, gungun riga-kafi karatu An sami adadin yawan mace-macen kamuwa da cuta (IFR) na kashi 0.15-0.2 kawai. Don haka, da'awar ita ce, alluran sun "ceto" dubun-dubatar mutane masu hasashe daga bala'in almara wanda ba zato ba tsammani ya yi muni sau bakwai. Mafarki ce ta rashin gaskiya.
Sanity Check: Da'awar Asusun Commonwealth, babu allurar rigakafin Covid-19, Amurkawa miliyan 2.42 da sun mutu daga Covid a cikin 2022, lokacin da bambance-bambancen Omicron suka mamaye. Wannan adadin wanda ya mutu a shekarar 6.9 ya ninka sau 2020.
Fantasies na Frieden ya rufe wani abu mafi muni. Yayin da yake yin la'akari da tasirin abin rufe fuska, kulle-kulle, da alluran rigakafi - da fatan ƙarin - yana yin watsi da rikicin gaskiya.
rikicin gaskiya
Mafi yawan shaidun yanzu suna nuni da allurar rigakafi a matsayin maɓalli mai mahimmanci ba a cikin mace-mace ba raguwa amma a karuwar tarihi.
Ɗayan babban gazawar Frieden shine bambance sakamako ga ƙungiyoyin shekaru daban-daban. Mutuwar dalibai ‘yan shekara 20 ko kuma uwaye ‘yan shekara 40 sun sha banban da na ‘yan shekara 95.
Frieden bai yarda da mahimman bayanai waɗanda ke bayyana a cikin bayanan inshorar rayuwa ba da ƙarin rahotannin ƙasa: Matasa da masu shekaru masu lafiya ko'ina cikin manyan masu shiga tsakani da manyan masu shiga tsakani a duniya sun kewaya 2020 tare da nasarar dangi amma sai suka fara mutuwa a m rates a 2021 da 2022. Suna mutuwa galibi ba na Covid ba. Rikicin mutuwar mutuwar balagagge (SADS) musamman da kuma yawan mace-macen tsofaffi gabaɗaya ba za a iya zarge shi ba akan ɗan rufe fuska, allurar rigakafi, da kullewa.
Maimakon yin la'akari da ganowa da kuma kashe wannan gobarar mai ƙararrawa guda biyar, Frieden yana matsawa, kun zato, ƙarin shirye-shiryen annoba.
Idan ba mu gaji da kwance damarar kulle-kulle ba, abin rufe fuska, da karkatar da alurar riga kafi, za mu ba da ƙarin lokaci kan iƙirarin da Frieden ya yi cewa magungunan rigakafin ƙwayar cuta da jiyya na asibiti suna da tasiri musamman wajen yaƙar Covid. Tabbas, tabbas yana wasa ne. Gwamnatin Amurka ta jagoranci yaƙi da lafiya, arha, rigakafin ƙwayoyin cuta masu inganci (kamar ivermectin da kuma hydroxychloroquine) kuma ya nace a kan wani asibiti mai haɗari, gwaji "ma'auni na kulawa" da ake kira remdesivir. Ba a taɓa tambayar su don bayyana adadin mutanen da suka mutu daga Covid a asibiti ba idan remdesivir ya yi tasiri.
Kira zuwa Action
Rashin yadda hukumomin kiwon lafiyar jama'a suka kasa tantance jerin gazawar da aka samu a tarihi ya nuna dalilin da ya sa ba su dace da aikin ba. Wataƙila ba su da ƙwarewar yin nazari, aiwatarwa, koyo, da kuma kwas ɗin daidai. Ko wataƙila cibiyoyi - daga FDA da CDC zuwa sassan kiwon lafiya na gida da na jihohi zuwa makarantun likitanci - ba su da wani nau'in ƙarfin tsari ko juriya ga tunanin rukuni.
Mun san shekaru da yawa kiwon lafiya ya karye ta fuskar tattalin arziki. Rufin azurfa na Covid shine fahimtar cewa kimiyya da magani sun lalace ta hanyoyi masu mahimmanci kuma ya kamata mu ninka ƙoƙarinmu na sake dawo da kasuwancin gaba ɗaya.
An sake bugawa daga marubucin Mayarwa
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Bret Swanson ɗan'uwa ne na Cibiyar Brownstone kuma shugaban kamfanin bincike na fasaha Entropy Economics LLC, babban ɗan'uwa a Cibiyar Kasuwancin Amurka, kuma ya rubuta Infonomena Substack.
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