Shin shigar da allurar rigakafin Covid ya rage mace-mace?
A preprint kwanan nan, tare da Jaridar Likita a yanzu mai tambaya Lancet, yayi da'awar cewa gabatarwar rigakafin Covid a cikin Disamba 2020 a zahiri ya hana dubun-dubatar mutuwar mutane a duk duniya.
Tabbas da'awar suna yin kanun labarai a duniya.
Kungiyar bincike karkashin jagorancin Azra Ghani daga Kwalejin Imperial ta Landan ne suka gabatar da wannan takarda. Kungiyar Global Alliance for Vaccines Initiative (GAVI) da Gidauniyar Bill da Melinda Gates da Rhodes Trust da Hukumar Lafiya ta Duniya (WHO) da sauran su ne suka tallafa mata. Dr. Ghani tana aiki a matsayin mai ba da shawara ga HSBC, GlaxoSmithKline, da WHO da kuma kamar yadda tare da sauran abokan aikinta na Kwalejin Imperial, ta kasance mai ɗaukar matakan kulle-kulle/pro-firgita, da rigakafin rigakafi sama da shekaru biyu.
Wannan bangon kawai ya ishe ni in sanya tuhuma a kan wani abu daga wannan takarda. Amma, Ina so in kalli abin da takardar ke ciki.
Na farko, kamar yadda take ya nuna a sarari, wannan binciken “Mathematical Modeling” ne. A cikin sharuddan kimiyya, nazarin ƙirar lissafin lissafi yana wakiltar daidai da yanki na "ra'ayi". Dalilin shi ne cewa don fahimtar sakamakon, kuna buƙatar fahimtar ba kawai abubuwan da aka shigar ba amma har ma da algorithms. Kuma, kamar yadda muka gani a fili tun daga 2020, ƙirar lissafin lissafi sun kasance ba daidai ba. Kayan aiki ne kawai.
To, me ke damun wannan labarin? Ba na ma buƙatar sanin algorithms saboda abubuwan da aka shigar ba su da kyau!
- Hasashen Mutuwa
Mafi kyawun fasalin shine kusan ba zai yuwu a iya hasashen mace-mace (nan gaba ko baya ba), musamman tare da ƙwayoyin cuta na numfashi na kowa. Za mu iya yin hasashen cewa wani kaso na tsofaffi (masu shekaru 75) tare da cututtuka da yawa na iya kamuwa da kwayar cutar numfashi kamar Covid, amma ba za mu iya yin hasashen wane da yaushe ba. Wasu mutanen da suke kama da manyan ƴan takara don mutuwa na iya rayuwa yayin da wasu waɗanda suke da lafiya suna iya mutuwa.
Duk da haka, hasashen mace-mace daga Covid ya dogara ne akan ainihin bayanai, ba yin ƙira ba. Samfuran lissafin da aka gabatar daga Kwalejin Imperial koyaushe sun kasance WUTA.
Ko da tare da ƙarin kafaffen cututtuka irin su kansa, tsinkayar mace-mace na iya zama abu mai wahala. Shi ya sa ake ba da ƙididdiga don rayuwa bisa ga matakin ganewar asali da jiyya, amma ƙididdiga ne kawai. Babu wani yanayi da kowane kwararren likita ya bayyana cewa ta hanyar amfani da maganin radiation muna ceton adadin X na rayuka kowace shekara daga cutar kansa.
Hakanan zan iya rubuta shirin da ke yin hasashen mace-mace bisa irin salon takalmin da mutum yake sakawa ko kuma irin motar da yake tukawa. Misali, matasa na iya zama masu sha'awar sanya wani salo na musamman na sneaker kuma tunda matasa ba su da yuwuwar mutuwa daga Covid, zan iya lissafin cewa saka irin wannan sneaker yana ceton rayuka.
Ceton rayuka kusan ko da yaushe hujja ce mai ruɗi.
2. Yin watsi da Wasu Abubuwan
- Kariya ta Halitta
A lokacin da aka bullo da allurar rigakafin a cikin Disamba 2020, yawancin kaso na duniya sun riga sun sami Covid. Mun sani daga binciken seroprevalence cewa asalin kwayar cutar tana yaduwa tun aƙalla tsakiyar 2019. Mun kuma san cewa rigakafi na halitta an tabbatar da ya fi ƙarfi fiye da kowane rigakafi na ɗan gajeren lokaci. Don haka, kaso mai yawa na yawan jama'a suna da mafi girman nau'in rigakafi wanda ya riga ya yi musu aiki, Immunity.
B. Cututtuka
A lokacin da aka bullo da allurar rigakafin a watan Disamba 2020, mutanen da suka fi kamuwa da mummunar cuta da mutuwa sun riga sun kamu da cutar. Tsofaffin da suka kamu da cutar kuma suka tsira a cikin 2020 yanzu suna da rigakafi na halitta wanda ke aiki a gare su. Kamar yadda yake tare da kowace shekara annoba annoba, za ku sami shekaru masu yawa na mace-mace bayan shekaru masu ƙarancin tsanani kawai saboda mafi yawan masu saurin kamuwa da cuta da wuri yayin da wasu ke ci gaba.
C. Lalacewar Yawan Jama'a
Wannan yanki na sama gaba ɗaya ya yi watsi da ɗimbin ƙwaƙƙwaran ƙarancin mace-mace a cikin yawan jama'a. Matasa sun sami raguwar mace-mace masu kamuwa da cuta cikin shekaru biyu da suka gabata. Samfuran lissafin suna ɗaukar matakin haɗarin mace-mace iri ɗaya a duk yawan jama'a. Wannan zato da muka sani karya ce kuma gabaɗaya ya ƙin kowane “samfuran” su.
D. Rage Mutuwar Cuta tare da Bambance-bambance
A lokacin da aka bullo da allurar rigakafin a watan Disamba 2020, bambance-bambancen na gaba suna fitowa ("Delta"). Hanyar juyin halitta na ƙwayoyin cuta yana zuwa ga ƙarancin kisa. Haƙiƙa haɓakawa yana yiwuwa tunda waɗannan suna da alaƙa da ƙwayoyin cuta waɗanda ke rayuwa.
Ƙara wannan zuwa gaskiyar cewa an tsara allurar rigakafin ne kawai don magance (wani sashi a wancan) tare da asalin ƙwayar cuta ta Covid, kuma kuna da maganin ba ma shiga cikin lissafin ba.
E. Ingantawa a Jiyya
A lokacin da aka bullo da allurar rigakafin a watan Disamba 2020, likitoci a duk duniya sun koyi yadda ake magance mafi munin lamuran Covid. Mafi yawan mutane har yanzu sun sami rashin lafiya kuma suna cikin haɗari kaɗan amma mafi yawan lokuta ana iya magance su ta hanyar ingantattun jiyya da kuma guje wa ayyuka masu haɗari kamar samun iska.
3. Amfanin Data
- Yawan Mutuwa azaman Alama
Zaton samfurin shine bayanan "Matsalar Mutuwa" na iya daidaita kai tsaye zuwa Covid, yayin da a zahiri wannan zato ba daidai bane. A duk faɗin duniya, mace-macen Covid yana taka rawa ne kawai a cikin yawan mace-mace. Don haka, akwai wasu dalilai da yawa waɗanda zasu iya taka rawa a cikin kowane fassarar mace-mace.
Amma, don samun kowace ma'ana, dole ne mutum ya rabu da kididdigar mace-mace ta ƙungiyar shekaru da waɗanda suka fi kamuwa da mace-mace daga Covid.
- Amfani da bayanan da ba a dogara ba
Yanzu mun san cewa ainihin adadin wadanda suka mutu daga Covid da kansa ya yi yawa saboda ka'idodin da suka fifita bayar da rahoton Covid akan dalilai na gaskiya da kuma amfani da PCR azaman ma'aunin tantancewa. Mun san cewa mutum zai iya murmurewa gaba daya daga Covid kuma ya faɗi wani abu da ba shi da alaƙa da Covid amma saboda suna da ingantaccen PCR a tarihin su, an rubuta shi azaman mutuwar Covid.
Wataƙila ba za mu taɓa fahimtar ainihin adadin mutanen da suka mutu a zahiri ga Covid saboda ruwan bayanan ya yi laka sosai kuma an sami tasirin siyasa sosai. Wannan abin tausayi ne domin yana nufin cewa wataƙila za mu ci gaba da ganin ana cin zarafin lambobin da ba za a iya dogaro da su ba domin mu yi ƙoƙari mu yi da’awa game da ayyukan shekaru biyu da rabi da suka gabata.
Ba na jin cewa kowa ya zama ƙwararren masanin kimiyya don ganin gabaɗaya a cikin irin rahoton da aka ambata a sama.
Idan ni mai bitar wannan labarin ne, zan mayar da shi tare da sharhi: jefa wannan a cikin kwandon shara.
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Roger W. Koops yana da Ph.D. a Chemistry daga Jami'ar California, Riverside da kuma Master da Digiri na farko daga Jami'ar Yammacin Washington. Ya yi aiki a Masana'antar Pharmaceutical da Biotechnology sama da shekaru 25. Kafin ya yi ritaya a cikin 2017, ya shafe shekaru 12 a matsayin mai ba da shawara da ke mayar da hankali kan Tabbatar da Inganci / Sarrafa da kuma batutuwan da suka shafi Biyan Kuɗi. Ya rubuta ko kuma ya haɗa takardu da yawa a fannin fasahar harhada magunguna da sinadarai.
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