Yana da ban sha'awa cewa mai girma editan wannan rukunin yanar gizon ya kammala, bayan fiye da shekaru huɗu na sanin yakamata, tushen fasahar mRNA. alluran rigakafin sun kasance mafita don neman matsala a cikin tunanin manyan jami'an tsaro na kasa-kasa, cewa SARS-CoV-2 ita ce amsar addu'o'insu, kuma kulle-kulle, abin rufe fuska, takunkumin makaranta, da kuma watsi da zabin magani ya zama dole don hana cimma nasarar rigakafin garken dabbobi ta hanyar kamuwa da cuta kafin a iya samar da alluran rigakafi da yadawa ga duk duniya.
Abin takaici, Jeffrey Tucker nunawa, Maganin da suka fi so 'ya gaza sosai.' Maimakon haka, abin da muke da shi 'na bayyana a nan shi ne mafi girma kuma mafi lalacewa a tarihin lafiyar jama'a.' Wasu sun ci gaba, suna jayayya cewa musamman alluran rigakafin mRNA sun haɗu da ƙarfi sosai tare da haɓaka duk abin da ke haifar da yawan mace-mace wanda dalili dole ne ya zama babban zato.
Duk da haka, ba kowa ba ne ke sayen hukunci mai girma na gazawa mai ban mamaki. Masu ba da goyon bayan nasarar nasarar ayyukan kiwon lafiyar jama'a suna nuna nauyi da kuma duniya baki ɗaya na barazanar daga Covid, a gefe guda, da fa'idodin kiwon lafiyar jama'a na allurar, a daya hannun. A farko, alal misali, shekara guda da ta gabata Hukumar Lafiya ta Duniya ta buga kiyasin cewa a cikin shekaru biyu na 2020 da 2021, kusan kusan Mutane miliyan 15 sun mutu tare da Covid, ko kusan sau uku kiyasin hukuma.
Nazarin da aka buga a mujallar Cutar Cutar Lancet a watan Yuni 2022 an kiyasta cewa allurar rigakafin Covid-19 ya ceci rayuka miliyan 19.8 a cikin shekarar farko da samun su, ya taimaka wajen rage yawan mace-macen duniya da kashi 63 cikin dari. Binciken ya yi amfani da samfurin lissafi na watsawa da rigakafin Covid-19.' Wani binciken samfurin ya kammala cewa a cikin shekaru biyu, an yi allurar rigakafi ceto rayukan Amurka kusan miliyan uku. A takarda Wasu masu binciken Amurka guda biyu a watan Maris na wannan shekara, daga Jami'ar Colorado da Jami'ar California Los Angeles, sun kiyasta cewa an ceto rayukan Amurkawa 800,000 ta hanyar kulle-kulle, nisantar da jama'a, da alluran rigakafi.
Wani samfurin kwamfyuta daga Jami'ar Monash a Melbourne ya kiyasta cewa allurar ya hana kusan mutuwar mutane 18,000 a New South Wales kadai a cikin shekara guda daga Agusta 2021 zuwa Yuli 2022, rage adadin wadanda suka mutu zuwa kashi daya cikin shida na abin da za a yi tsammani in ba haka ba. Matasa masu shekaru 50 da sama da ba a yi musu allurar rigakafi sun fi yawan mace-mace sau goma sha biyu fiye da takwarorinsu.
Waɗannan dogon iƙirari ne, a cikin ma'anoni biyu na kalmar. Yana da ban sha'awa yadda mutane da yawa har yanzu suke ƙoƙarin yin bamboozle masu ba da rahoto na kiwon lafiya da jama'a tare da ƙirar ilimin lissafi don da'awar gagarumar nasara ga rigakafin Covid-19. An yi zato game da kamuwa da cuta da adadin masu mutuwa da kuma game da ingancin alluran don samar da irin wannan ƙididdiga masu kyau. Da yawa kuma suna ɗauka cewa babu wani rigakafi da ya wanzu daga kamuwa da cuta a kowane lokaci. gyare-gyare na son rai na ɗabi'un mutum don rage haɗari kamar yadda wayar da kan jama'a ke yaɗuwar cutar gaba ɗaya. Ba a yi watsi da sãɓãwar jũna a cikin watsawa da kisa na bambance-bambancen da suka biyo baya kamar yadda kwayar cutar ta canza.
Likitocin lafiyar jama'a da masu kera alluran rigakafin suna ba da kansu suna rarraba kowa har zuwa makonni biyu ko uku bayan kashi na biyu a matsayin 'marasa alurar riga kafi,' lokacin da mafi fa'ida mafi fa'ida na bayanan binary zai kasance cikin wanda ba a taɓa yin allurar ba.
Akwai matsalar kurakuran coding a cikin tarin bayanai, gami da bambance-bambance masu yawa a cikin rikodin mace-mace kamar masu alaƙa da Covid. Bambanci tsakanin mutuwa da kuma daga Covid na iya zama ba zai yiwu a rabu da shi ba a yanzu. Wannan ba yana nufin abin banza ba ne. Covid a matsayin kadai ko babban dalilin mutuwa na iya kaiwa wani abu tsakanin kashi 10-50 na adadin miliyan bakwai na adadin wadanda suka mutu sanadiyar cutar ta COVID-21 a ranar XNUMX ga Mayu, kamar yadda Worldometer ya nuna.
Sannan kuma, ba za a iya jayayya ba kuma an yarda da shi a yanzu cewa tasirin rigakafin yana raguwa cikin sauri, musamman ma tare da ci gaba mai ƙarfi, ta yadda ranar auna bayanai kuma ta zama mai mahimmanci. The lafiyayyen maganin rigakafi wani abu ne mai ruɗani.
Mafi mahimmancin la'akari shine wannan: ƴan binciken da ke inganta alluran rigakafi suna kulawa don ware kariyar da alluran rigakafi ke bayarwa daga na rigakafi ta halitta daga kamuwa da cuta ta farko. A cikin taƙaice mai ban tsoro ranar 20 ga Mayu, Alex Berenson ya lura: 'Science ya kawo mana annoba. Nature cece mu.'
Yi la'akari da nau'i-nau'i biyu na ƙasashe maƙwabta a cikin Arewa da Kudancin Ƙasar: Kanada da Amurka, da Ostiraliya da New Zealand (Hoto na 1). Saboda Amurka ta sami cika kashi 70 cikin 60 (wato, allurai biyu) alluran rigakafi a makare, na zaɓi ƙofa na sabani na kashi 2021 don dalilai na kwatancen yanzu. Kanada da Amurka sun haye bakin kofa a watan Agusta da Nuwamba XNUMX, yayin da Australiya suka yi hakan a watan Oktoba.
Na gaba, duba kwanakin da ƙasashen huɗu suka rubuta mafi girman adadin mace-macen yau da kullun (matsakaicin mirgine na kwanaki 7) (Table 1). A cikin biyun Arewacin Amurka, da kyau kafin samun kashi 60 cikin ɗari; a Ostiraliya, bayan haka.
Table 1: Lokacin mafi girman adadin mace-macen Covid. Source: Duniyar Mu a Bayanai
Lura: Ba kamar yadda aka saba ba a cikin ƙasashe huɗun da ake la'akari, Kanada ta sami kololuwa guda uku masu kama da juna. Sauran biyun sun faru ne a ranar 28 ga Janairu, 2021, tare da adadin mutuwar miliyan 4.05, kuma a ranar 1 ga Fabrairu, 2022, mutuwar 4.15 a kowane mutum miliyan.
Kanada ta sami cikakken kashi 60 cikin 14 na cikakken allurar rigakafin a ranar 2021 ga Agusta 2021, watanni goma sha biyar bayan mafi girman yawan mace-macen yau da kullun na Covid da watanni bakwai bayan ƙaramin kololuwa a cikin Janairu 60. Amurka ta kai kashi 11 cikin 2021 cikakken rigakafin a ranar 60 ga Nuwamba XNUMX, watanni goma bayan mafi girman yawan mace-macen yau da kullun na Covid. A wasu kalmomi, adadin mace-mace ya ragu a cikin waɗannan ƙasashen Arewacin Amurka da kyau kafin ɗaukar rigakafin ya kai kashi XNUMX cikin ɗari.
Sabanin haka, Ostiraliya da New Zealand sun sami cikakken kashi 60 cikin 25 na allurar rigakafi a ranar 29 da 2021 ga Oktoba 16, bi da bi kuma yawan mace-macen su na Covid ya haura da kyau bayan haka: watanni XNUMX bayan Australiya da watanni tara ga New Zealand.
Wannan ma an fi kama shi a cikin jimlar adadin mutuwar da ke da alaƙa da Covid.
Ga Amurka, kashi 63 na mutuwar da ke da alaƙa da Covid har zuwa Mayu 2024 an yi rikodin kafin kashi 60 cikin 51.4 na cikakken rigakafin, wanda shine dalilin da ya sa jami'an kiwon lafiyar jama'a da jami'an gudanarwa ba za su iya yin tsayayya da jarabar haɗa kai da kuma sanadin mutuwar bayan allurar rigakafin ba. Wannan ba a bayyane yake ba ga Kanada, tare da kashi 60 na jimlar mutuwarta da aka yi rikodin bayan kashi XNUMX cikin ɗari.
A cikin yanayin Ostiraliya, kashi 93 cikin 60 na mace-macen sun kasance bayan kashi 99.3 cikin XNUMX na cikakken rigakafin. Ga New Zealand, rabon yana da ban mamaki kashi XNUMX. Yadda kowa zai iya da'awar wannan a matsayin nasarar rigakafin tare da madaidaiciyar fuska ya wuce fahimta. Idan ana so a nuna alaƙa a matsayin sanadi, don haka, a fili alluran rigakafi suna haifar da lamuran Covid da mutuwar da ta yi ƙasa sosai kafin a fara fitar da allurar. Amma a bayyane yake, allurar rigakafin iri ɗaya ba za su iya haifar da cututtukan Covid da mace-mace a cikin Amurka ba amma suna haifar da hauhawar jini a Australasia.
A kowane hali, ko da ba tare da daidaita alaƙa da sanadin ba, misalan Australiya guda biyu sun isa su gurbata da'awar gabaɗayan tasirin rigakafin. Sai dai idan, ba shakka, masu aminci na allurar suna son yin gardama cewa akwai wani ƙarfi mai ban mamaki da ke lalata alluran yayin da suke ketare ma'aunin ƙasa.
Akwai wani bayani na dabam wanda ya shafi ƙasashen huɗu mafi kyau. Wannan yana nuna mahimmin rawar rigakafin halitta daga kamuwa da cuta da ta gabata. Kamar yadda aka nuna a cikin Hoto na 2, saboda hadewar lokacin bazara a Kudancin Kudancin lokacin da cutar ta barke, yanayin yanki, da rufe iyakokin kasa da kasa, Ostiraliya da New Zealand sun yi nasarar keɓe yawan jama'arsu daga cutar har tsawon shekaru biyu. Ya zuwa ranar 31 ga Disamba 2021, jimlar shari'o'in (wanda aka bayyana azaman ingantaccen gwaji ba tare da la'akari da jin daɗi ko rashin lafiya ba) a kowace mutane miliyan 2,686 na New Zealand da 25,068 na Ostiraliya, amma 56,907 na Kanada da kuma 161,373 na Amurka. Don haka ɗimbin jama'ar Kanada da (musamman) Amurkawa sun sami rigakafi na halitta a lokacin.
Amma wannan yana nufin cewa sama da shekaru biyu na keɓewa, sai dai idan alluran rigakafin sun yi tasiri sosai kuma sun ci gaba da rigakafin su na dogon lokaci, Ostiraliya da (musamman) New Zealand sun ƙirƙiri yawan jama'a marasa ƙarfi na rigakafi. Sai dai idan sun yi niyyar rufe iyakokinsu zuwa duniyar waje ta dindindin, wanda ba ma yuwuwa ba ne, al'ummominsu sun kasance masu saurin kamuwa da sabbin kwayoyin cutar da zarar sun sake budewa kuma har sai sun sami rigakafi wanda ya fi karfi kuma mai dorewa.
A taƙaice, don haka, aka duba tare, misalan misalan biyu daga Arewacin Amurka da Australasia suna nuna rauni ga rawar da ba a taɓa gani ba na alluran rigakafi da kuma muhimmiyar rawar da rigakafin kamuwa da cuta ke samu wajen kawo ƙarshen cutar. Ana kiransa sake koyan darasi iri ɗaya.
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Ramesh Thakur, Babban Babban Masanin Cibiyar Brownstone, tsohon Mataimakin Sakatare-Janar na Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ne, kuma farfesa na farko a Makarantar Siyasa ta Crawford, Jami'ar Kasa ta Australiya.
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