Kusan jarirai 2,000 ne ke mutuwa a Indiya kowace rana, daga abubuwan da za a iya hana su, rashin abinci mai gina jiki da kuma abubuwan da suka shafi tsafta. Dangane da wannan, rikice-rikicen da ke kewaye da Covid-19 da ke haifar da mutuwar tsofaffi da masu cutarwa, da kuma matsayin cutar a matsayin batun lafiyar jama'a na ma'aunin da ba a zata ba, sun kasance marasa gaskiya a hankali da kuma abin kyama.
A farkon watannin 2020 bayan ayyana cutar ta Covid-19, shafukan labarai sun cika da kamuwa da cutar da ke da alaƙa da lambobi, kowane aikin ɗan adam ya sami ɗan canji, idan ba a daina gaba ɗaya ba, kuma tsoron mutuwa ya mamaye yawancin duniya. Dangane da fahimtara game da wasu hatsarurrukan da jama'a ke fuskanta, musamman a Indiya, tsoro ya yi kama da wuce gona da iri.
Don haka na fara duban wasu bayanai. Har zuwa Afrilu 30, 2020, akwai kawai Mutuwar 1,154 Covid-19 a Indiya, ƙasa ce mai yawan jama'a da kusan mutane biliyan 1.35, kuma kusan mutuwar 30,000 na yau da kullun kowace rana. Hakanan ya bayyana a sarari cewa ƙarancin adadin mace-mace ba saboda kullewa ba ne, saboda nisantar da jama'a ba shi da ma'ana a cikin cunkoson jama'a na Mumbai (birnin da nake zaune). Na san mutane da yawa daga irin wannan ƙauyen, amma ban ji labarin wani munanan tatsuniyoyi na adadin mace-mace daga wurin ba.
A tsakiyar watan Mayu 2020, na fara yin wasu kwatancen don ganin ko tsoro ya sami goyan bayan shaida. Yaya barazanar Covid-19 ta kwatanta da sauran barazanar da matsakaicin Indiya ke fuskantar pre-Covid-19? Wannan babin yana kan irin wannan kwatanta a cikin kasa mai cunkoso na Indiya. Tare da manufar sa mai karatu ya yi tunani, an tsara wannan babin a matsayin jerin tambayoyi. Ina ƙarfafa mai karatu ya yi ƙoƙari na gaske don amsa kowace tambaya, kafin karanta amsoshin da aka bayar da bayanin.
Kwatanta Yawan Mutuwa
Tunda tsoro a kusa da Covid-19 saboda mutuwar da zai iya haifarwa, bari mu fara da Yawan Mutuwa a matsayin ma'auni. The Yawan Mutuwa shine adadin mace-mace a cikin mutane 1,000 a kowace shekara.
Hoton da ke sama yana nuna Yawan Mutuwa a cikin shari'o'i huɗu masu zuwa (sandunan da ke cikin jadawali ba lallai ba ne a cikin wannan tsari): (A) Adadin mutuwa a Amurka a cikin 2019 (B) Mafi munin adadin mutuwa a Amurka a cikin 2020 kamar yadda ya dace. Washington Post ta Labari A ranar 28 ga Afrilu, 2020: "Amurka na iya yuwuwar mutuwar mutane miliyan 1 idan rabin yawan jama'ar suka kamu da cutar kuma ba a yi ƙoƙarin iyakance yaduwar cutar ta hanyar nisantar da jama'a, maganin rigakafi ko ingantattun hanyoyin warkewa", (C) Adadin mace-mace a Indiya a cikin 2019, (D) Adadin mutuwa a Indiya shekaru 40 baya (1979). Motsa jiki don mai karatu shine ya daidaita kowace mashaya tare da A, B, C & D a sama.
Ana nuna amsar a ƙasan adadi. C=7.3, D=13.8.mahada]. A=8.8mahada], yayin da B=11.8 za a iya lissafta daga A=8.8 da US yawan ~330 miliyan.
Manufar kwatanta da adadin mutuwar shekaru 40 da suka gabata shine mai zuwa: yawancin masu matsakaicin shekaru a cikin 2020 suna da iyaye waɗanda suka rayu ta 1979 kullum, ba tare da tsoron mutuwa akai-akai ba. Don haka, yayin da mutum zai iya fahimtar wani matakin damuwa game da karuwa kwatsam a cikin adadin masu mutuwa, matakin tsoro na apocalyptic a cikin 2020 gabaɗaya wani abu ne na tarihi. kafafen watsa labarai ke ƙera hauka.
Covid-19 vs Mutuwar Jarirai a Indiya
Yanzu bari mu kwatanta haɗarin mutuwar Covid-19 da na mace-macen jarirai. Hoton da ke ƙasa yana ɗaukar wannan kwatanta a matsayin tambaya. Ka tuna a nan cewa Indiya ta daɗe tana fama da matsalar yawan mace-macen jarirai. Dangane da hangen nesa, an kuma nuna adadin mace-macen jarirai a Japan a cikin wannan adadi, saboda Japan tana daya daga cikin mafi karancin yawan mace-macen jarirai a duniya. Ina ƙarfafa mai karatu ya dakata ya gwada tambayar kafin a ci gaba.
Ana nuna amsar a ƙasan adadi. A=3 bisa dari [mahadaB=0.17 bisa dari [mahada], C shine Ƙimar Cutar Cutar Cutar (IFR) da aka kiyasta a matsayin 0.15 bisa dari [mahada], D shine Adadin Kisa (CFR) kamar kashi 1.13 a Indiya kamar na 25 Apr 2021 [mahada].
Adadin mace-macen jarirai a Indiya ya yi yawa (kimanin kashi 3) tsawon shekaru da yawa, kuma a cikin 2020 ya kusan sau 20 kimanta Covid-19 IFR (kimanin kashi 0.15). Don haka matakin tsoron rashin daidaituwa na Covid-19 yakamata ya bayyana ga duk wanda ke kula da lambobin a Indiya.
Lura kuma, cewa yayin da mutuwar jarirai ke haifar da asarar shekaru da yawa na rayuwa, mutuwar Covid-19 galibi tana tsakanin tsofaffi da masu kamuwa da cuta, tare da matsakaicin shekarun mutuwar Covid-19 har ma ya fi matsakaicin shekarun mutuwar Covid-19. Wannan yana kara jaddada rashin daidaituwar fargabar da ke tattare da Covid-19.
Kwatanta Dalilan Matukar Mutuwa A Indiya
Wannan adadi da ke ƙasa ya kwatanta adadin waɗanda suka mutu sakamakon wasu dalilai a Indiya. Muna iya ganin adadin wadanda suka mutu na kunar bakin wake a 2019 yayi kwatankwacin adadin mutuwar Covid-19 da aka kirga a shekarar 2020. Kuma adadin wadanda suka mutu hatsarin ababen hawa a shekarar 2019 a zahiri ya zarce adadin wadanda suka mutu na Covid-19 a shekarar 2020. Yawan wadanda suka mutu na tarin fuka (TB) a duk shekara ya kai ma. mafi girma.
Ƙari mafi girma shine kiyasin mutuwar jarirai a kowace shekara. Ana iya ƙididdige wannan kamar haka ta amfani da lambobi don ƙimar haihuwa, yawan jama'a, da adadin mutuwar da aka karɓa daga sabara.ir da kuma katzamiya.in. Idan aka yi la'akari da adadin haihuwar Indiya na 17.8 a cikin dubu ɗaya da yawan jama'a miliyan 1,366 a cikin 2019, haihuwar da aka haifa a kowace rana a cikin 2019 ya kusan 66,600.
Yawan mace-macen jarirai a shekarar 2019 a Indiya ya kai 3.09 yayin da mafi ƙanƙanta a duniya ya kasance na Japan a kashi 0.17; mun ɗauki bambanci a matsayin mace-macen jarirai = 2.92 bisa ɗari. Don haka yawan mace-macen jarirai a kowace rana a cikin 2019 = 66,600 x 2.92percent ~= 1,950 a kowace rana, ko kuma kusan 711,750 da za a iya rigakafin mutuwar jarirai a cikin 2019. Lura cewa wannan ma ya fi yawan adadin Covid-19 da aka ƙidaya kamar na 30 Yuni 2022, na 525,139.
Shi ne ya kamata a lura da cewa duk uku matsaloli na mutum ya kashe kansa, da tarin fuka, da yaro tamowa sun kara tsananta sosai ta hanyar mayar da martani na kulle-kulle ga Covid-19.
Rashin daidaituwar martanin Covid-19 ya fi girma yayin da aka kwatanta adadin Covid-19 da adadin gurɓataccen iska. Yayin binciken daya An kiyasta mutuwar mutane miliyan 2019 a shekarar 1.7 sakamakon gurbacewar iska. wani an kiyasta daidai da miliyan 2.4.
Rashin tasirin kullewa
Tambayar da ke da alaƙa da lambobin da ke da alaƙa da dalilai daban-daban na mutuwa a cikin adadi na sama shine ko kullewa a cikin 2020 ya haifar da ƙarancin adadin Covid-19. Yanzu, Tsarin Rijistar Jama'a ta Indiya (CRS) ya nuna cewa kowace shekara ƙara a cikin wadanda aka yi rajista sun mutu 475,000 a cikin 2020, idan aka kwatanta da 2019. Alhali, makamancin haka. ƙara daga 2018 zuwa 2019 ya ma fi girma, a 690,000. Dangane da wannan, ana shakka ko an sami barkewar cutar kwata-kwata a cikin 2020 a Indiya.
Yanzu, mutane da yawa suna danganta ƙarancin adadin mutuwar Covid-19 a Indiya a cikin 2020 zuwa tsauraran matakan kullewa. Dole ne mu lura cewa kulle-kulle a cikin 2020 ba shi yiwuwa ya zama sanadin "ƙananan" adadin mutuwar Covid-19 a Indiya, saboda dalilai da yawa.
Na farko, yayin da akwai tsauraran matakan kullewa har zuwa Mayu 2020, tun daga Yuni 2020, ayyuka daban-daban sun kasance. bude kuma taron jama'a ya zama ruwan dare gama gari. Amma wannan bai shafi lanƙwan igiyar ƙwayar cuta ba. A kimiyyance, bincike da yawa sun nuna cewa akwai ɗan alaƙa tsakanin ƙulli da adadin Covid-19: misali [link1, link2].
Takaitacciyar Kwatanta a Indiya
Duk kwatancen lambobi da ke sama suna nuna cewa brouhaha ya yi game da Covid-19 kasancewar barazanar lafiyar jama'a wanda ba a san shi ba ko sikelin da ba a zata ba duk babban wuce gona da iri ne, da kuma jita-jitar "ceton rayuka" hogwash. Matsayin rashin gaskiya ya yiwu ta hanyar kisan na asali ilimin lissafi yana haifar da cikakken rashin daidaituwa a cikin tsinkayen barazanar Covid-19 a cikin zukatan jama'a.
Wannan wani yanki ne daga littafin marubucin “Kisan Lissafi a cikin Hauka da ƙera Kafafen Sadarwa"
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Bhaskaran Raman malami ne a Sashen Kimiyyar Kwamfuta da Injiniya a IIT Bombay. Ra'ayoyin da aka bayyana a nan ra'ayinsa ne na kansa. Yana kula da rukunin yanar gizon: "Fahimtar, Unclog, Rashin tsoro, Rashin tsoro, Buɗe (U5) Indiya" https://tinyurl.com/u5india. Ana iya samun sa ta twitter, telegram: @br_cse_iitb. br@cse.iitb.ac.in
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