A ranar 17 ga Fabrairu mai binciken gaskiya Iria Carballo-Carbajal, Masanin kimiyyar neuroscientist ta hanyar horo, amma a fili ba tare da wani ilimi a cikin ilimin cututtuka ba, ya buga "tabbacin gaskiya" Labari a gidan yanar gizon Feedback na Lafiya. A cikin kanun labaranta, Carballo-Carbajal ta yi bayani mai zuwa: "Nazari da yawa sun nuna cewa rufe fuska yana rage yaduwar COVID-19; bita na Cochrane bai nuna in ba haka ba."
Yanzu ana amfani da wannan labarin ta hanyar kamfanonin kafofin watsa labarun don murkushe duk abubuwan da suka shafi binciken Cochrane. Na fahimci hakan a ranar 10 ga Maris lokacin da na sami sanarwar cewa wani sakon da wani memba na kungiyar Facebook da nake gudanarwa ya yi yana dauke da "bayanan karya."
Rubutun ya yi nuni ga wani ra'ayi yanki akan bita na Cochrane a cikin New York Times, wanda aka buga a ranar 10 ga Fabrairu. “Mai binciken gaskiya mai zaman kansa” da aka ambata shine labarin da Carballo-Carbajal ya ambata. Samun tambarin bincikar gaskiya na iya zama matsala mai tsanani ga jarida, ko kaɗan ga cibiyar kimiyya. Don haka bai zo da mamaki ba cewa tuni a ranar 10 ga Maris editan Cochrane Karla Soares-Weiser ya buga wata sanarwa da ke ƙoƙarin rage sakamakon binciken, ba daidai ba yana da'awar binciken kawai da nufin tantance tasirin sa baki don Inganta saka abin rufe fuska, yayin da aka bayyana a sarari haƙiƙa na binciken shine don tantance tasirin ayyukan psyical da kansu, ba kawai tasirin inganta su ba.
A wannan rana da New York Times buga a yanki da'awar a cikin kanun labarai cewa masks tabbas yana aiki, amma galibi ana sadaukar da shi don shafan marubucin binciken Cochrane Dr. Tom Jefferson. Misali, labarin ya ce Jefferson ya fada a cikin wani hira cewa babu wata shaida da ke nuna cewa kwayar cutar ta SARS-CoV-2 tana iska ne, yayin da abin da ya ce a zahiri shi ne cewa akwai hanyoyin watsa labarai da yawa kuma ana buƙatar ƙarin shaida don tabbatar da daidai yadda watsa ke faruwa.
Wannan jerin abubuwan da suka faru babban misali ne mai ban tsoro na yadda masana'antar sa ido ke aiki. Abin ya fi ban mamaki idan aka yi la'akari da yadda labarin "gaskiyar gaskiya" na Carballo-Carbajal yake, a zahiri, a hankali da ɗabi'a.
1. Mai shayarwa
Carballo-Carbajal ya fara ne ta hanyar ƙirƙirar ɗan iska, a wannan yanayin da'awar da aka danganta ga Dr. Robert Malone, yana nufin wani kwanan nan. post a shafin sa. A karkashin taken "Da'awar," da'awar da aka ce an bayyana haka: "Masu rufe fuska ba su da tasiri wajen rage yaduwar COVID-19 da sauran cututtukan numfashi, wani bita na Cochrane ya nuna." Wannan ikirari da aka nakalto baya ga hoton Dr.
Kamar dai wannan bai isa ba, Carballo-Carbajal ta ci gaba, tana gabatar da abin da ta kira "cikakkiyar da'awar:" Bita "ya kasa samun ko da 'madaidaicin tasiri' kan kamuwa da cuta ko rashin lafiya:" "CDC ta yi karin gishiri ga Shaidar Taimakawa Dokokin Mask."
Matsalar da ke tattare da wannan ita ce, yayin da aka nakalto Dr. Malone daidai a sashin farko na sakin layi, na biyu shine kawai abin da kawai bai faɗi ba a cikin rubutun nasa.
2. Ad hominem
Carballo-Carbajal sannan ta dauki kanta don kai wa Dr. Malone hari, tana mai cewa ya yada "bayanai mara kyau game da rigakafin Covid-19", tana nufin wani labarin, wanda kuma Feedback Lafiya ya buga. Yanzu, a cikin mene ne bayanan da aka ce ba gaskiya ba ya kunsa, bisa ga wannan labarin? The Labari shine "tabbacin gaskiya" na a Washington Times Ra'ayin Dr. Malone da Dokta Peter Navarro sun buga a cikin 2021, inda suka yi jayayya da manufofin gwamnatin Amurka na allurar rigakafin cutar, suna masu cewa ya dogara ne akan zato guda hudu marasa kuskure. Na farko, cewa allurar rigakafi na duniya na iya kawar da kwayar cutar, na biyu cewa alluran rigakafin suna da tasiri sosai, na uku kuma ba su da lafiya, na huɗu kuma rigakafin rigakafin rigakafi yana dawwama.
Da kyar Carballo-Carbajal ta yi rashin sa'a game da batunta. A yanzu ya bayyana sarai cewa allurar rigakafi ta duniya ba za ta iya kawar da kwayar cutar ba, rigakafin rigakafin da ake yi wa allurar rigakafi yana raguwa da sauri, har ma ya zama mara kyau, kamar kamuwa da cuta. karatu da kuma reinfection karatu sun riga sun nuna. Gaskiyar cewa alluran ba su "(kusa) daidai ba," suna ambaton labarin Malone da Navarro, ya daɗe tun a bayyane; a gaskiya shine dalilin da ya sa ba za su iya kawar da kwayar cutar ba.
Dangane da batu na uku, wannan shi ne abin da Malone da Navarro suka fada a cikin nasu Labari: "Zata na uku shi ne cewa alluran rigakafin ba su da lafiya. Amma duk da haka masana kimiyya, likitoci, da jami'an kula da lafiyar jama'a yanzu sun gane haɗarin da ba su da yawa amma ba kaɗan ba. Abubuwan da aka sani sun haɗa da cututtukan zuciya mai tsanani da cututtukan thrombotic, rushewar hawan haila, Bell's palsy, Guillain-Barre syndrome, da anaphylaxis." Watau, ba su da aminci, suna da yawa da aka sani illar da ba kasafai ba, kuma wannan a zahiri ya zama mafi bayyane yayin da lokaci ya wuce.
A takaice dai, Carballo-Carbajal yayi ƙoƙari ya hana Dr. Malone ta hanyar zarge shi da "lalata" game da wani abu dabam da batun labarinta. Wannan ita ce dabarar ad-hominem ta yau da kullun a cikin guntun “duba gaskiya”. Rashin nasararta yana da ban mamaki, saboda duk abubuwan da aka ce na "bayanan da ba a sani ba" sun riga sun tabbatar da gaskiya.
3. Hujja
Babban taƙaitaccen bayanin Carballo-Carbajal (ciki har da "Bayani" da "Maɓallin cirewa") shine mai zuwa:
Da'awar cewa abin rufe fuska ba shi da tasiri wajen rage yaduwar COVID-19 bisa nazarin Cochrane bai yi la'akari da iyakokin bita ba. Duk da yake masu amfani da yawa sun gabatar da wannan bita a matsayin mafi kyawun shaida, binciken mutum ɗaya da aka kimanta ya bambanta da yawa dangane da inganci, ƙirar binciken, yawan adadin da aka yi nazari, da kuma sakamakon da aka lura, wanda ya hana marubutan su zana duk wani sakamako mai mahimmanci.
Gwajin da aka sarrafa bazuwar ana ɗaukar ma'auni na zinariya lokacin da ake kimanta tasirin sa baki. Duk da haka, irin wannan binciken na iya bambanta sosai da inganci, musamman a cikin hadaddun shisshigi kamar abin rufe fuska, yana shafar amincin sakamakon. A cikin wannan mahallin, masana kimiyya da yawa sunyi la'akari da cewa ya kamata a ga gwaje-gwajen da aka sarrafa bazuwar a matsayin wani ɓangare na shaida mai zurfi ciki har da sauran zane-zane na binciken. Lokacin yin la'akari da waɗannan karatun, shaidu sun nuna cewa yawan amfani da abin rufe fuska na iya rage watsawar jama'a na SARS-CoV-2, musamman idan aka haɗa shi da sauran ayyukan kamar wanke hannu akai-akai da nisantar jiki.
Yanzu zan raba wannan magana kashi-kashi sannan in tabbatar da ingancin kowane bangare. Dole ne mu tuna cewa tushen da aka nakalto shine shafin yanar gizon Dr. Nassoshi ga tushen da ba a tantance ba, kamar “shafukan yanar gizo da yawa da sakonnin kafofin watsa labarun” dole ne a yi watsi da su saboda tabbataccen dalili cewa ba a bayar da nassoshi ba:
1. Sanarwa: Dr. Malone ya yi iƙirarin nazarin Cochrane ya nuna abin rufe fuska ba su da tasiri wajen rage yaduwar Covid-19.
Tattaunawa: Kamar yadda aka nuna a sama, Dr. Malone bai yi wannan da'awar ba. A maimakon haka ya yi iƙirarin binciken "bai sami ko da 'madaidaicin tasiri' akan kamuwa da cuta ko rashin lafiya ba." Akwai bambanci mai mahimmanci tsakanin da'awar A baya aiki da da'awar A ba a tabbatar da yin aiki ba. Su biyun ba su da ma'ana daya.
Hukunci: Maganar Carballo-Carbajal karya ce.
2. Bayani: Dr. Malone baya la'akari da iyakancewar bita lokacin yin wannan da'awar.
Tattaunawa: Da farko, Dokta Malone bai taɓa yin da'awar ba, amma da'awar daban. Duk da haka, a cikin shafin sa na yanar gizo ya bayyana karara cewa masu binciken sun yi watsi da rashin tabbas game da illar rufe fuska: "Ƙananan tabbataccen tabbaci na shaidar yana nufin amincewarmu ga ƙimar sakamako yana iyakance, kuma cewa tasirin gaskiya na iya bambanta da ƙimar da aka lura na tasirin."... "[t] babban haɗarin son zuciya a cikin gwaje-gwajen, bambancin ma'aunin sakamako, da ƙarancin yarda da shisshigin yayin karatun yana hana yanke shawara mai ƙarfi da haɓaka sakamakon binciken ga cutar ta COVID-19 na yanzu. Don haka ba gaskiya ba ne cewa Dokta Malone “bai yi la’akari da iyakokin bita ba."
Hukunci: Maganar Carballo-Carbajal karya ce.
3. Sanarwa: "[T] binciken da aka yi [...] kimanta [a cikin bita] ya bambanta sosai ta fuskar inganci, ƙirar binciken, yawan jama'a da aka yi nazari, da sakamakon da aka lura, [...] [hana] marubutan daga zana kowane tabbataccen ƙarshe."
Tattaunawa: The binciken Sakamako a bayyane yake: "Akwai ƙarancin tabbaci daga gwaje-gwaje tara (3,507 mahalarta) cewa sanya abin rufe fuska na iya yin ɗan ko a'a ga sakamakon cutar mura (ILI) idan aka kwatanta da rashin sanya abin rufe fuska (Rsk ratio (RR) 0.99, 95% tazara tazara (CI) 0.82 zuwa 1.18. An tabbatar da mura a cikin dakin gwaje-gwaje idan aka kwatanta da rashin saka abin rufe fuska (RR 0.91, 95 bisa dari CI 0.66 zuwa 1.26; 6 gwaji; mahalarta 3,005). 95 bisa dari CI 2 zuwa 1.10; matsakaici-tabbatar shaida;
Ana maimaita waɗancan sakamakon a cikin ƙarshe na Marubuta, yana ƙara ƙin yarda da hakan "[t] yana da babban haɗarin nuna son kai a cikin gwaje-gwajen, bambancin auna sakamako, da ƙarancin yarda da shisshigin yayin karatun yana hana yanke shawara mai ƙarfi da haɓaka sakamakon binciken ga cutar ta COVID-19 na yanzu."
Wannan ƙin yarda shine bambaro wanda Carballo-Carbajal ke manne da dukkan ƙarfinta. Amma kamar yadda jagoran binciken ya bayyana, wannan bai canza sakamakon binciken ba, kawai ya bayyana cewa sakamakon zai iya shafar rashin tabbas da ke tasowa daga gazawar binciken da aka yi amfani da shi. A cikin kalamansa:
"Ana kiransa da hankali, kuma ana kiransa kasancewa masu gaskiya da shaidar da muka samu. Wannan ita ce mafi kyawun shaidar da muke da ita" (duba bayanin da ke ƙasa).
Kamar dai Carballo-Carbajal bai fahimci ma'anar rashin fahimta ba a cikin takardar kimiyya; maimakon haka sai ta yi ƙoƙarin yin amfani da wannan don bata sakamakon binciken da kuma tabbatar da ikirarinta na cewa abin rufe fuska yana aiki, duk da shaidar. Rashin yarda a cikin binciken baya lalata sakamakonsa.
Hukunci: Maganar Carballo-Carbajal yaudara ce.
4. Sanarwa: Gwajin da aka sarrafa bazuwar ana la'akari da ma'auni na zinare lokacin tantance tasirin sa baki.
Tattaunawa: Maganar da wannan magana ta ginu akan shi shine shafin Dr. Malone. Ko da yake wannan furci na iya zama gaskiya, yin la’akari da cewa wani abu gabaɗaya “ana la’akari da mizani na zinariya” bisa ra’ayin wani masanin kimiyya, kuskure ne na hankali.
Hukunci: Sanarwar Carballo-Carbajal ba ta da inganci.
5. Bayani: Zinare daidaitattun karatu sun bambanta sosai a inganci.
Tattaunawa: Wannan da'awar ba ta goyan bayan kowace shaida. Yana iya zama gaskiya, ko kuma a'a.
Hukunci: Bayanin Carballo-Carbajal baya da hujja.
6. Sanarwa: Yawancin masana kimiyya sunyi la'akari da cewa ya kamata a ga gwaje-gwajen da aka sarrafa bazuwar a matsayin wani ɓangare na shaida mafi girma.
Tattaunawa: Tushen wannan labari ne a cikin The Tattaunawa daga masana cututtukan cututtukan guda uku da kwararre a fannin kiwon lafiya na farko. Tabbas marubutan sun yi wannan iƙirari, amma ba tare da faɗi wata magana ba. Don haka, bayanin cewa ya dogara ne akan ra'ayin "masu ilimin cututtuka da yawa" karya ne kawai. Wannan iƙirari ne da masana cutar guda uku suka yi kuma idan aka yi la'akari da ɗimbin mutanen da ke da wannan horon, kalmar "da yawa" tabbas ba ta da tabbas. Dole ne a ƙara da cewa roko ga lambobi (argumentum ad populum) kuskure ne na ma'ana.
Hukunci: Bayanin Carballo-Carbajal baya da hujja. Abinda ake zarginsa ya dogara ne akan muhawarar ad populum, kuskuren ma'ana.
7. Bayani: Lokacin da aka yi la'akari da binciken da bai cika buƙatun binciken daidaitaccen zinare ba, suna nuna yawan amfani da abin rufe fuska na iya rage watsawar al'umma.
Tattaunawa: Tabbas gaskiya ne cewa ta hanyar rage ma'auni za ku iya samun sakamako daban-daban, amma wannan magana tana da matsala, don Carballo-Carbajal yana da alama daga ƙarshe cewa duk da sakamakon binciken Cochrane, masks suna hana watsawa. Wannan ya bayyana daga wannan sashe, zuwa ƙarshen labarin: "Ƙarin shaidun da ke haɓakawa daga RCTs da nazarin lura sun nuna cewa daidaitaccen saka abin rufe fuska na iya rage yaduwar ƙwayoyin cuta na numfashi kamar SARS-CoV-2 a cikin duka tsarin kiwon lafiya da na al'umma. …
Wannan yana nufin iƙirarin Carballo-Carbajal ba wai kawai ƙarancin ingantaccen bincike ya ba da shawarar wani abu ba; magana ta ƙarshe ta nuna cewa a fili ta yi iƙirarin cewa abin da suke ba da shawara gaskiya ne. Wannan ikirari ya fi bayyana a kanun labaranta: "Nazari da yawa sun nuna cewa rufe fuska yana rage yaduwar COVID-19." Bambanci mai zurfi a saman, amma mai mahimmanci. Yana nufin ya dace a sake fasalin bayanin asalin kamar haka: "Lokacin da aka yi la'akari da nazarin da bai cika ka'idodin binciken gwal ba, suna nuna yawan amfani da abin rufe fuska na iya rage watsawar al'umma. kuma wannan ingantacciya ce. "
Wannan ya kawo mu ga tambayar dalilin da yasa ba a haɗa ƙa'idodin Carballo-Carbajal a cikin bita na Cochrane ba. Sa'a muna da a kwafi na cikakken hira tsakanin jagoran marubucin binciken, Dokta Tom Jefferson (JF) da Dr. Carl Heneghan (CH), inda aka tattauna wannan dalla-dalla:
CH. Yanzu duba, zan kai ku aiki a nan. A cikin mawallafin ƙarshe mutane za su karanta wannan bita kuma su fara kallon wannan kuma su ce, duba, mun sami tabbataccen shaida, muna da gwaje-gwajen da aka sarrafa bazuwar kuma musamman a matakin abin rufe fuska za su ce, duba, kuna nunawa a cikin al'umma wannan rashin tasirin, amma kun fara da babban haɗarin rashin son zuciya a cikin gwaji, bambancin aunawa, da ƙarancin tsayin daka tare da tsayayyen bincike. Yanzu na tura wannan batu saboda amsar da ta dace a lokacin ita ce in je duk binciken da aka yi na lura inda mutane suka yi bita na yau da kullun kuma sun yanke shawarar abin da za su yi. Don haka za ku iya yin karin haske kan abin da hakan ke nufi a cikin mahallin gwaji 78 - wato yawancin shaidar gwajin sarrafa bazuwar - za ku iya yin karin haske kan abin da hakan ke nufi?
TJ. Ana kiransa da hankali, kuma ana kiransa yin gaskiya da shaidar da muka samu. Wannan ita ce mafi kyawun shedar da muke da ita, amma ba kamar yadda wasu malaman akida ke ingiza ra’ayin cewa binciken da ba a yi ba, nazarce-nazarcen na iya ba da amsoshi, wasun su kan zo da amsoshi masu zafafan amsa, da zafafan kalamai, tabbatattu, waxanda kawai ba na kimiyya ba ne. Kimiyya ba tabbatuwa ce ba, kimiyyar rashin tabbas ce, kokarin matsawa kan ajanda ne, da tara ilimi. Yin amfani da binciken da ba a bazuwa ba a cikin ƙididdigar ƙwayoyin cuta na numfashi na tsoma baki tare da ƙwayoyin cuta na numfashi yana nufin cewa mutane ba su fahimta ba, waɗanda suka yi waɗannan binciken ba su fahimci wasan kwaikwayon abubuwa da yawa ba. Misali yanayin yanayi, alal misali fitowar wa]annan wakilai, suna nan watarana, kuma sun tafi gaba. Idan ka kalli halin SARS-CoV-2 a cikin sa ido na Burtaniya na tsawon watanni 12 da suka gabata sama da ƙasa, kuma gabaɗaya ce gabaɗaya daga kowane sa baki, kuma yana da sauri sama da sauri. Nazarin lura ba zai iya lissafin hakan ba. Har ila yau, yawancin binciken da ake lura da su suna komawa baya, don haka ana nuna musu son zuciya mara tausayi; masu bincike sun yanke shawara daga bayanan da suka samu daga yin tambayoyi kamar su "Shin za ku iya tunawa wata daya da ta gabata sau nawa kuka sanya abin rufe fuska" ko "Abin da kuka yi a kan wannan ko abin da kuka yi a kwanakin baya" ba tare da adana bayanan kula ba. Wannan kawai ba kimiyya ba ne. Inferring awo, nisantar, lokacin da na asali binciken bai yi irin wannan abu. Don haka wannan jerin ra'ayi ne mara iyaka wanda ba za a iya la'akari da shi ta hanyar nazarin lura ba. Kuma hanya daya tilo da za mu iya amsa tambayoyi ita ce gudanar da manyan gwaje-gwajen sarrafa bazuwar don amsa takamaiman tambaya a cikin takamaiman yawan jama'a."
Kamar yadda Jefferson ya bayyana a nan, iyakantaccen nazari na lura ya sa kusan ba zai yiwu a zana musu abin da Carballo-Carbajal ke yi ba. Carballo-Carbajal ta nakalto wasu nazarce-nazarce da dama don tallafawa da'awarta. Ba zan bi duk waɗannan a nan ba, amma duban wasu misalan ya kamata ya isa ya ba da shaida ga wasu matsalolin da Jefferson ya tattauna, da kuma karyata wasu ƙididdiga marasa tushe na Carballo-Carbajal.
Misali daya daga cikin binciken da aka nakalto, Wang et al, ya ƙarasa da cewa amfani da abin rufe fuska ta shari'ar farko da abokan hulɗar dangi kafin yanayin farko ya fara bayyanar cututtuka ya kasance kashi 79 cikin XNUMX na tasiri wajen rage watsawa. Wannan bincike ne na dubawa na baya-bayan nan inda shaidar amfani da abin rufe fuska ta ta'allaka ne kawai akan rahoton kai na mahalarta bayan-gaskiya.
Wani kuma, Mello et al. yana nuna yadda ƙwayoyin cuta ke taruwa a cikin abin rufe fuska, amma Carballo-Carbajal yana ɗaukar wannan a matsayin shaida "[wani] bayanai masu samuwa suna nuna cewa saka abin rufe fuska yana da tasiri idan aka haɗa shi da wasu matakan sarrafawa, kamar nisantar jiki da yawan wanke hannu."
Don taƙaitawa, Carballo-Carbajal ya yi iƙirarin cewa tun da babban karatu mai inganci bai tabbatar da tasirin abin rufe fuska ba a kan watsawa, to, binciken da ba a iya dogaro da shi ba, wanda aka keɓance daga ma'aunin ma'aunin zinare, daidai saboda rashin amincin su, tabbatar da abin da babban ingancin karatun ya kasa tabbatarwa.
Hukunci: Maganar Carballo-Carbajal (wanda aka sake fassara) karya ce. Ba tare da sake maimaita shi ba.
8. Bayani: Sakamakon amfani da abin rufe fuska ya fi girma idan an haɗa shi tare da wasu ayyukan.
Tattaunawa: Wannan magana tana da matsala. Ya riga ya fito fili daga ingantattun shaidun da aka bayar ta hanyar nazarin Cochrane cewa da'awar cewa abin rufe fuska yana rage watsawa ba ta da tabbas. Wannan yana nufin da'awar sun ƙara zuwa kariyar da wasu ayyukan ke bayarwa dole ne ba daidai ba.
Hukunci: Maganar Carballo-Carbajal karya ce.
Carballo-Carbajal ya fara da yin ƙarya ga Dr. Robert Malone da'awar biyu da bai taba yi ba. Waɗancan da'awar ƙarya sun zama ginshiƙi na "tabbacin-gaskiya."
Sai ta yi kuskuren zargin Dr. Malone da yin maganganun karya game da wani lamari na daban, hujjar ad hominem da ba ta da nasaba da batun labarin.
Daga cikin ikirari takwas da Carballo-Carbajal ta yi a taqaicenta, wanda babban rubutunta ya goyi bayansa, guda huɗu karya ce a sarari, ɗaya ba daidai ba ne, ɗaya mai ɓaddi ne, biyu kuma ba su goyi bayan wata hujja ba, wanda ɗaya daga cikinsu ya dogara ne akan kuskuren hankali shima.
Idan aka yi la’akari da yadda ake amfani da wannan labarin mai cike da kura-kurai a yanzu don murkushe yada wata muhimmiyar takarda ta kimiyya, don matsawa babban editan Cochrane yin ikirarin karya game da makasudin takardar da rage sakamakonsa, da kuma yin la’akari da binciken da wata muhimmiyar jarida ta samu, a fili akwai bukatar gaggawar daukar mataki mai karfi kan abin da ake kira “masana’antu”. Matsayin da wannan takunkumin ya karu a fili kuma barazana ce ga bincike da ci gaban kimiyya.
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Thorsteinn Siglaugsson mashawarcin Icelandic ne, ɗan kasuwa kuma marubuci kuma yana ba da gudummawa akai-akai ga The Daily Skeptic har ma da wallafe-wallafen Icelandic daban-daban. Ya yi digiri na BA a fannin falsafa da MBA daga INSEAD. Thorsteinn ƙwararren ƙwararren ƙwararren ƙwararren ne a cikin Theory of Constraints kuma marubucin Daga Alamu zuwa Dalilai - Aiwatar da Tsarin Tunanin Hankali zuwa Matsala ta Kullum.
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