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Hankalin barazana
A halin yanzu duniya tana sake daidaita abubuwan da ta fi dacewa da lafiyarta da zamantakewa don fuskantar barazanar da ake ganin na kara hadarin kamuwa da cutar. Hukumar Lafiya ta Duniya (WHO)WHO), Da Bankin duniya, da kuma rukunin gwamnatoci 20 (G20), wannan ajanda ya dogara ne akan iƙirarin haɓakar cututtukan cututtukan da ke saurin yaɗuwa (cututtuka), waɗanda ke haifar da haɓakar haɗarin manyan “zubawar” ƙwayoyin cuta daga dabbobi (zoonosis). Don kasancewa cikin shirye-shiryen duniya don irin wannan haɗarin kamuwa da cuta, ɓangarorin da yawa sun matsa kaimi don ɗaukar matakan gaggawa da gaggawa, don kawar da “barazani mai wanzuwa” ga ɗan adam.
G20 ta kasance tsakiya don haɓaka wannan ma'anar gaggawa. Kamar yadda ya fada a cikin rahoton G20 High Level Independent Panel 'Yarjejeniyar Duniya don Zamanin Cutar Mu:'
"ba tare da ƙarfafa dabarun ba, barazanar lafiyar duniya za ta fara fitowa akai-akai, za ta yaɗu cikin sauri, da ɗaukar rayuka, da tarwatsa rayuwa, da yin tasiri sosai a duniya fiye da da.. "
Bugu da ƙari,
“… fuskantar barazanar da ke tattare da muguwar annoba da tsadar rayuwa dole ne ya zama batun tsaron ɗan adam na zamaninmu."
A takaice dai, rahoton na G20 ya nuna cewa annobar cutar za ta karu cikin sauri a mitoci da kuma tsanani matukar ba a dauki matakin gaggawa ba.
Dangane da mayar da martani, al'ummomin kula da lafiyar jama'a na kasa da kasa, wadanda jaridun kimiyya da manyan kafofin watsa labarai ke tallafawa, yanzu sun mai da hankali kan aikin rigakafin, shiryawa, da kuma ba da amsa ga annoba da barazanarta. Ƙarshe $ 30 biliyan kowace shekara ana ba da shawarar kashewa kan wannan batu, tare da kari $ 10 biliyan a cikin sabon kudade - sau uku kasafin kudin duniya na shekara-shekara na WHO na yanzu.
Nuna ma'anar gaggawa na rayuwa a cikin "zamanin annoba," kasashe za su kada kuri'a akai sabon dauri yarjejeniyar a Majalisar Lafiya ta Duniya a watan Mayu 2024. Waɗannan sun haɗa da saitin gyara zuwa Dokokin Lafiya ta Duniya (IHRs) da kuma sabo Yarjejeniyar annoba (wanda a da ake kira The Pandemic Treaty). Manufar waɗannan yarjejeniyoyin ita ce ƙara haɗin kai na manufofi da bin ka'idoji tsakanin Membobin ƙasashe, musamman lokacin da WHO ta ayyana cewa Gaggawar Kiwon Lafiyar Jama'a na Damuwa ta Duniya (PHEIC) tana wakiltar barazanar annoba.
Yana da hankali a shirya don gaggawar lafiyar jama'a da haɗarin annoba. Hakanan yana da ma'ana don tabbatar da cewa waɗannan shirye-shiryen suna nuna mafi kyawun shaidar da ake samu game da haɗarin cutar, kuma duk wani martani na manufofin ya yi daidai da waccan barazanar. Ɗaya daga cikin alamun manufofin tushen shaida shine ya kamata a tabbatar da yanke shawara na manufofin ta hanyar ingantacciyar hujjar da aka kafa ba bisa akida ko akida kawai ba. Wannan yana ba da damar rarraba albarkatun da suka dace tsakanin abubuwan da suka dace na kiwon lafiya da tattalin arziki. Abubuwan kiwon lafiya na duniya sun riga sun yi karanci kuma sun shimfiɗa; babu shakka cewa yanke shawara game da shirye-shiryen rigakafin cutar za su sami tasiri mai mahimmanci ga tattalin arzikin duniya da na gida, tsarin kiwon lafiya, da walwala.
To, mene ne shaida kan barazanar kamuwa da cutar?
Sanarwar G20 daga 2022 (Indonesia) da 2023 (New Delhi) sun dogara ne akan binciken Babban Kwamitin Ingantacciyar Matsayinsa (HLIP), wanda aka gabatar a cikin rahoton 2022 wanda Bankin Duniya da WHO suka sanar, da bincike da aka ba da izini daga wani kamfani mai zaman kansa, Metabiota, da kamfanin tuntuɓar McKinsey & Company. The Rahoton ya taƙaita shaida a cikin maƙallai guda biyu (Hoto na 1 a ƙasa), yana lura a cikin Bayanin ta cewa:
"Duk da yake muna yaƙar wannan annoba [Covid-19], dole ne mu fuskanci gaskiyar duniyar da ke cikin haɗarin kamuwa da cutar ta yau da kullun.. "
yayin a shafi na 20:
"Shekaru ashirin da suka gabata an ga manyan barkewar cututtuka a duniya kowace shekara hudu zuwa biyar, gami da SARS, H1N1, MERS da Covid-19. (Dubi Annex D.)"
"An sami saurin zubewar zoonotic a cikin shekaru talatin da suka gabata. (Duba Annex E.) ”
Ta hanyar “zoonotic spillovers,” rahoton yana nuni ne ga yadda ƙwayoyin cuta ke yaɗuwa daga rukunin dabbobi zuwa ga yawan ɗan adam. Wannan shine tushen tushen HIV/AIDS gabaɗaya, barkewar cutar SARS ta 2003, da mura na yanayi. Zoonosis ana tsammanin shine babban tushen cututtukan cututtukan da ke gaba, tare da hana fitowar dakin gwaje-gwaje na cututtukan da mutane suka gyara. Tushen ma'anar gaggawar rahoton G20 HLIP shine waɗannan bayanan (D da E) da bayanansu na asali. A takaice dai, wannan tushe shaida ce ke goyan bayan gaggawar kafa ingantattun manufofin annoba na duniya, da kuma matakin saka hannun jari da ya kamata wadannan manufofin su kunsa.
To, menene ingancin shaidar?
Duk da mahimmancin rahoton HLIP ya ba da bayanai a cikin Annex D, a zahiri akwai ƙananan bayanai don tantancewa. Annex yana gabatar da tebur na barkewar cutar da shekarun da suka faru, ba tare da wata alaƙa ko tushe da aka bayar ba. Yayin da aka nakalto Metabiota da McKinsey a wani wuri a matsayin tushen farko, McKinsey mai dacewa Rahoton bai haɗa da wannan bayanan ba, kuma ba a iya samun bayanan lokacin da ake gudanar da bincike na kayan Metabiota da ake samu a bainar jama'a.
Don ƙarin fahimtar abubuwan da ke faruwa daga bayanan da ke cikin Annex D, mun ƙirƙiri madaidaicin tebur "mafi dacewa" na fashewar ƙwayoyin cuta da shekara (Hoto 1), tare da bayanan mace-mace na hukuma don barkewar cutar ta kowace cuta (wasu sun wuce shekara 1 - duba tushe a cikin Table 1).
Domin magance wani sahihanci a fili a cikin Annex D, mun kuma haɗa da 2018 da 2018-2020 annobar cutar Ebola a Jamhuriyar Demokradiyyar Kongo a cikin bincikenmu, tun da ba a sami rahoton bullar cutar Ebola mai yawa ba a cikin 2017. Wannan shi ne mai yiwuwa abin da "Ebola 2017" ya yi nufin nunawa a cikin Annex D. A cikin bincikenmu (Hoto na 1) mun ware Covid-19 tunda ba a san adadin mace-macen da ke da alaƙa da shi ba kuma ana jayayya game da asalin sa (an gyara dakin gwaje-gwaje ko na halitta) kamar yadda aka tattauna daga baya.
Lokacin da aka yi kwatance tsakanin teburin fashewar HLIP da teburin mu na shekaru ashirin da suka gabata, al'amuran mace-mace guda ɗaya ya mamaye - barkewar cutar murar alade ta 2009 wacce ta haifar da ƙiyasin. 163,000 mutuwar. Na gaba mafi girma, barkewar cutar Ebola ta yammacin Afirka, ta haifar da hakan 11,325 mutuwar.
Ko da yake waɗannan cikakkun lambobin suna da damuwa, dangane da haɗarin kamuwa da cutar ya zama dole a lura cewa cutar ta Ebola na buƙatar tuntuɓar kai tsaye don yaɗuwa kuma tana taƙaice a tsakiyar Afirka da yammacin Afirka, inda ake samun bullar cutar a cikin 'yan shekaru kuma ana magance ta a cikin gida. Bugu da ƙari, a cikin sharuddan dangi, la'akari da hakan da zazzabin cizon sauro tana kashe yara sama da 600,000 duk shekara, da tarin fuka ya kashe mutane miliyan 1.3, yayin da yanayi mura ya kashe tsakanin 290,000 zuwa 650,000. Don haka, sanya Annex D a cikin mahallin, da Cutar Ebola a yammacin Afirka, mafi girma a tarihi, don haka ya haifar da kwatankwacin kwanaki 4 na mutuwar tarin fuka a duniya, yayin da Barkewar cutar murar alade na 2009 ya kashe kasa da mura ta saba yi.
Barkewar cutar ta uku mafi girma da G20 HLIP ta lissafa ita ce kwalara barkewar cutar a shekarar 2010, wanda aka keɓe a Haiti, kuma ana tunanin ya samo asali ne daga rashin tsaftar muhalli a wani gida na Majalisar Dinkin Duniya. Kwalara ta taba haifar da manyan annoba (wanda ya yi yawa tsakanin 1852-1859) kuma shine batun farko. yarjejeniyar kasa da kasa a kan cututtuka. Ingantacciyar tsaftar ruwa da tsaftar magudanar ruwa ta ragu sosai zuwa wani matsayi da barkewar cutar Haiti ta kasance sabon abu, kuma ana samun ci gaba gabaɗaya a ƙasa tun 1859.
Dangane da barazanar, babu wata barkewar da HLIP ta lissafa a cikin 2000-2020 da ta kashe sama da mutane 1,000. HLIP ta yi la'akari da wannan tebur don nuna manyan annoba a duniya a kowace shekara 4-5, yayin da a zahiri ya nuna galibi ƙanana, cututtukan cututtukan da ke tattare da cututtuka na yau da kullun da marasa kamuwa da cuta waɗanda duk ƙasashe ke magance su. Akwai kawai 25,629 da ba murar aladu da wadanda ba Covid-19 suka mutu a cikin shekaru ashirin da suka gabata daga barkewar da HLIP ta yi la'akari da cewa mai tsanani (an lura cewa wasu barkewar cutar ta faru a cikin wannan lokacin da HLIP ba ta yi la'akari da isasshe ba).
Covid-19 ba shakka ya shiga tsakani - barkewar farko tun 1969 don haifar da mace-mace fiye da mura na yanayi a kowace shekara. Wannan mace-mace ta faru galibi a cikin tsofaffi marasa lafiya, a matsakaicin shekaru sama da 75 shekaru a cikin mafi yawan mace-mace masu samun kudin shiga, kuma a cikin mutane tare da muhimman cututtuka, sabanin yadda akasarin mace-macen yara kanana daga zazzabin cizon sauro da kuma manya zuwa manya wadanda ke mutuwa daga cutar tarin fuka. Yawan mace-mace ya karu sama da tushe amma raba mace-mace na Covid-19 daga mace-mace sakamakon matakan 'kulle', rage gwajin cutar da gudanarwa a cikin kasashe masu samun kudin shiga da inganta cututtukan da ke da alaka da talauci a cikin kasashe masu karamin karfi, yana sanya kiyasin nauyi mai wahala.
Koyaya, idan muka karɓi Covid-19 (saboda hujja) a matsayin al'amuran halitta, to lallai yakamata a haɗa shi yayin tantance haɗarin. Akwai muhawara masu ma'ana game da sahihancin yadda aka yi rikodin mace-mace kuma aka danganta ga Covid-19, duk da haka ana ɗaukan WHO daidai ne a cikin alkalummanta, sannan WHO ta rubuta Mutuwar 7,010,568 da aka danganta da (ko alaƙa da) ƙwayar cuta ta SARS-CoV-2 sama da shekaru 4, tare da mafi yawa a cikin shekaru 2 na farko (Hoto na 2).
Ba da izinin haɓaka yawan jama'a, wannan har yanzu ya haura fiye da mutuwar 1.0 zuwa miliyan 1.1 da aka danganta ga barkewar cutar mura a 1957-58 da 1968-69, kuma mafi girma tun bayan bullar cutar ta Sipaniya wacce ta yi sanadiyar mutuwar mutane da dama sama da karni daya baya. Tare da matsakaicin mace-mace na miliyan 1.7 a kowace shekara sama da shekaru 4, Covid-19 bai bambanta da tarin fuka ba.1.3 miliyan), amma an mayar da hankali a cikin rukunin shekaru masu yawa.
Tuberculosis, duk da haka, yana ci gaba a baya kuma zai ci gaba bayan Covid-19, yayin da Hoto na 2 ke nuna barkewar Covid-19 da ke saurin raguwa. A matsayin abin da ya faru na farko a cikin shekaru 100 na wannan girman, ko da yake kadan ya bambanta da manyan cututtukan tarin fuka, kuma a kan tushen da ba ya nuna karuwar mace-mace daga abubuwan da suka faru, ya bayyana a fili maimakon shaidar wani yanayi.
Hoto 2. Mutuwar Covid-19, har zuwa Janairu 2024 (Madogararsa: WHO). https://data.who.int/dashboards/covid19/deaths?n=c
Shaida ta biyu da HLIP ta yi amfani da ita don tabbatar da da'awarta na cewa muna rayuwa ne a cikin "zamanin annoba" bincike ne da Metabiota Inc., wani kamfani mai zaman kansa ya yi wanda tun daga lokacin da ƙungiyar cututtukan cututtuka ta mamaye ta. Ayyukan Ginkgo. Bayanan Metabiota sun samar da Annex E na rahoton HLIP (duba Hoto na 3), wanda ke nuna yawan fashewar cututtukan zoonotic wadanda ba mura ba sama da shekaru 60 zuwa 2020, da kuma abubuwan da suka faru na 'cirewa' mura har tsawon shekaru 25.
Ko da yake an ambaci Metabiota a matsayin tushen, bayanan da kansa ba a ƙara yin magana ba. Wannan ya ce, saitin bayanan marasa mura iri ɗaya yana bayyana a cikin wani gabatarwar kan layi ta Metabiota zuwa Cibiyar Ci gaban Duniya (CGD) a ranar 25 ga Agustath, 2021 (Hoto na 4). Wannan saitin bayanai kuma ya bayyana a cikin wani labarin ilimi na kwanan nan a cikin British Medical Journal a cikin 2023, ma'aikatan Metabiota suka rubuta tare (Meadows et al., 2023). Marubutan sun yi nazari kan bayanan Metabiota na annobar cutar guda 3,150, gami da duk barkewar da WHO ta rubuta tun 1963 da kuma “mahimmancin tarihi” kafin barkewar cutar (Hoto na 5). Bayanan da aka yi amfani da su a cikin Meadows et al. (2023) yana samuwa a cikin ƙarin bayanin labarin, kuma tsoffin ma'aikatan Metabiota sun tabbatar wa REPPARE cewa bayanan da aka yi amfani da su a cikin wannan labarin, kamar yadda a cikin binciken da aka yi a baya, yanzu ana samun su ta hanyar kasuwanci. Concentric ta Ginkgo Bioworks.
An taƙaita wuraren bayanan a cikin HLIP Annex E ta hanyar da'awar guda biyu. Da fari dai, cewa akwai “haɓaka” karuwa a cikin mitar barkewar cutar mura. Na biyu, wannan mura'in 'cirewa' (canjawa daga dabbobi) ya karu daga "kusan babu" a cikin 1995 zuwa kusan abubuwan 10 a cikin 2020. Dukansu da'awar suna buƙatar gwaji.
Babban ginshiƙi a cikin Annex E (Chart 1), idan an ɗauke shi don wakiltar ainihin adadin fashewa, hakika yana nuna haɓakar haɓaka tun daga 1960. Duk da haka, kamar yadda Meadows da mawallafa suka tabbatar a cikin takarda na gaba, wannan karuwa a cikin rahotanni ba ya la'akari da ci gaban sabon sa ido da fasahar bincike, wanda ya ba da damar gano mafi kyau (ko a wasu lokuta). An ƙirƙira gwajin PCR ne kawai a cikin 1983 kuma a hankali ya zama mai sauƙi a cikin dakunan gwaje-gwaje a cikin shekaru 30 da suka gabata. Gwaje-gwajen serology na Antigen da wurin kula sun kasance kawai a cikin shekaru biyun da suka gabata, kuma jerin kwayoyin halitta ba da jimawa ba.
Tun daga 1960, mu ma mun sami ci gaba sosai a harkar sufurin hanya, samun damar asibiti, da raba bayanan dijital. A sakamakon haka, wannan iyakancewa a cikin binciken Meadows ya haifar da wani muhimmin batu. Wato, ci gaban fasahar ganowa na iya haifar da babban haɓaka a cikin ruwaito annobar cutar, tun da yawancin kananan cututtuka da na gida ba za a rasa su ba shekaru 60 da suka wuce. A matsayin misali ɗaya kawai, an rasa HIV/AIDS aƙalla shekaru 20 kafin a gano a cikin 1980s.
Abin da ke sama yana ba da shawara shi ne cewa tabbas akwai sanannun tasirin zubar da jini kuma waɗannan suna faruwa tare da wasu mitoci da sakamako mai kisa. Abin da ba shi da aminci shi ne da'awar cewa akwai ƙarin mitar zoonosis da/ko ƙarar rahoton ba za a iya bayyana cikakken ko a wani bangare ta ci gaban fasahar ganowa ba. Ƙayyade tsohon zai buƙaci ƙarin bincike wanda zai iya sarrafa wannan canji na ƙarshe.
A cikin su gabatar zuwa CGD (Hoto 4), Metabiota ya haɗa da bayanan mita ɗaya a sama, amma kuma ya haɗa da mace-mace a matsayin ma'auni na tsanani. Wannan yana da mahimmanci, tun da yake ya nuna alamun karuwar mace-mace na faruwa ne kawai sakamakon barkewar cutar Ebola guda biyu na baya bayan nan. Har ila yau, Ebola cuta ce da aka keɓe kuma tana cikin sauri. Idan an kawar da wannan cuta guda ɗaya a matsayin barazanar annoba, bayanan sun nuna cewa, bayan an sami bullar cutar ƙasa da 1,000 shekaru 20 da suka gabata (SARS1, Marburg virus, da Nipah virus), mace-mace ta ragu (Hoto na 5). Da alama duniya ta yi kyau sosai wajen ganowa da sarrafa barkewar cutar (da rashin lafiya) a ƙarƙashin shirye-shiryen yanzu. Halin mace-mace a cikin shekaru 20 kafin Covid-2014 ya ragu. Fitaccen bincike na babban bayanan da aka buga a cikin XNUMX, ta Smith et al., samu guda; Wato an sami ƙarin rahoton abubuwan da suka faru amma tare da raguwar ainihin lokuta (watau nauyi) dangane da girman yawan jama'a.
Taswirori na biyu a cikin Annex E na rahoton HLIP, na abubuwan da suka faru na 'cirewa' mura, yana da wuyar fassarawa. Mutuwar mura shine trending ƙasa a Amurka (inda bayanai ke da kyau) a cikin 'yan shekarun da suka gabata. Bugu da ƙari, ƙididdigar da ake samu a duniya ba su da ɗanɗano, tare da mutuwar kusan 600,000 a kowace shekara a cikin 'yan shekarun da suka gabata kuma duk da karuwar yawan jama'a.
Don haka, da'awar Metabiota na karuwa daga 1 zuwa 10 spillover events a kowace shekara daga 1995 zuwa 2000 da alama ba zai yuwu a yi nuni ga ainihin canjin yanayi na mura. Yana yiwuwa haɓakar yana nufin ci gaban ganowa. Menene ƙari, idan ƙananan bambance-bambancen mura na yau da kullun ana la'akari da su kamar mura mai saurin kamuwa da cuta.HPAI) nau'in H5 da H7, sannan mace-mace tana da yawa ki yarda a cikin karnin da ya gabata (duba hoto daga duniyarmu a rukunin bayanai). WHO ta kuma lura cewa mace-mace daga 'Mura Tsuntsaye,' wanda muka fi ji akai-akai, yana raguwa (Hoto na 6).
Kamar yadda bayanin bayanin HLIP ya nuna, da'awar karuwar pre-Covid a cikin haɗarin fashewa ya zama mara tushe. Wannan labari ne mai kyau daga mahangar kiwon lafiya ta duniya amma yana haifar da damuwa dangane da shawarwarin G20 na yanzu, tunda suna da niyyar saka sabbin albarkatu masu yawa a cikin manufofin cutar yayin da masu yuwuwar karkata daga shirye-shiryen da ake dasu.
Abin takaici, rahoton McKinsey & Kamfanin da HLIP ya ambata bai ba da ƙarin haske game da haɗari ba. Tare da mayar da hankali kan samar da kuɗi, rahoton McKinsey kawai ya ba da shawarar zuba jari na dala biliyan 15 zuwa dala biliyan 25 na tsawon shekaru biyu, sannan dala biliyan 3 zuwa dala biliyan 6 a kowace shekara, yana taƙaita hujjar wannan saka hannun jari kamar:
"Al'amuran zoonotic, wadanda cututtukan da ke yaduwa suna yin tsalle daga dabba zuwa mutum, sun shafi wasu cututtukan da suka fi hatsarin kwanan nan, wadanda suka hada da Covid-19, Ebola, MERS, da SARS."
Duk da haka, shaidar wannan da'awar ba ta da ƙarfi. Kamar yadda aka nuna a sama, Ebola, MERS, da SARS sun yi sanadiyar mutuwar mutane kasa da 20,000 a duniya a tsakanin su a cikin shekaru 20 da suka gabata. Wannan shine adadin mace-mace na tarin fuka kowane kwana 5. Duk da yake Covid-19 yana da mace-mace da yawa dangane da nauyin cututtukan dangi, ba shine "mafi haɗari" barazanar lafiya ta wani yanki mai yawa ba. Bugu da kari, raba kasada daga kwayar cutar SARS-CoV-2 daga hadarin da ke haifar da martanin manufofin abu ne mai wahala, kuma bincike a wannan yanki ya yi kadan. Duk da haka, fahimtar wannan rabuwar haɗarin Covid-19 zai zama mahimmanci don tantance abin da ke ko ba "mafi haɗari" game da barkewar cutar da kuma wadanne albarkatu da manufofi za a fi sanya su don kare mu daga waɗannan haɗari na gaba.
A wani wuri, wallafe akan hadarin kamuwa da cutar sun yi ikirarin fiye da haka Mutane miliyan 3 sun mutu a kowace shekara. Ana samun waɗannan lambobi ta hanyar haɗawa da cutar ta Sipaniya, wacce ta faru kafin zuwan maganin rigakafi na zamani kuma galibi ana kashe su ta hanyar ƙwayoyin cuta na biyu. cututtuka, kuma ta haɗa da HIV/AIDS, taron shekaru goma masu yawa, azaman fashewa. Dukansu mura da HIV/AIDS sun riga sun sami ingantattun ingantattun hanyoyin sa ido da gudanarwa na duniya (ko da yake ana iya samun ci gaba). Kamar yadda aka nuna a sama, mace-macen mura yana raguwa ba tare da bullar cutar sama da yanayin yanayi ba tsawon shekaru 50. Nau'in wurin da HIV/AIDS ya taso kuma ya iya yadawa da ba a gane shi ba tsawon shekaru da yawa ba za a iya samun shi ba.
Don haka, akwai haɗarin wanzuwa?
Ana fahimtar barazanar wanzuwa a matsayin wani abu da zai haifar da bacewar ɗan adam ko kuma zai hana ci gaban ɗan adam na rayuwa. Dangane da wannan, idan muka yi tunanin wata barazana ta wanzuwa, gabaɗaya mu kan yi tunanin wani bala'i kamar yaƙin asteroid da ke canza duniya ko kuma yaƙin nukiliya. Kodayake mun yarda cewa rashin hankali ne a yi gardama cewa babu haɗarin kamuwa da cuta, mun kuma yi imanin cewa tushen shaidar da ke tallafawa da'awar barazanar kamuwa da cutar ta kasance mai rauni sosai.
Kamar yadda bincikenmu ya nuna, bayanan da G20 ya ba da tabbacin haɗarin cutar ba shi da rauni. Zato na barazanar karuwa da sauri da aka samu daga waccan bayanan, wanda ake amfani da shi don tabbatar da manyan saka hannun jari a shirye-shiryen barkewar cutar da kuma sake yin oda na lafiyar jama'a na kasa da kasa, ba su dogara da tushe mai tushe ba. Har ila yau, dole ne a yi tambaya game da tasirin tsarin sa ido da ake sanyawa don gano barazanar yanayi, kamar yadda ake da'awar tanadin ya dogara ne akan mura mai tarihi da HIV/AIDS, wanda hanyoyin da aka riga aka yi kuma haɗarin ke raguwa, yayin da mace-mace daga abubuwan da suka faru daga tafkunan dabbobi, tushen ikirari na G20 kuma ba shi da haɗari.
Covid-19 kadai kuma yana ba da hujja mara kyau akan matakai daban-daban. Idan asalin halitta ne, to bisa ga bayanan G20 ana iya fahimtar shi a matsayin keɓewar taron kuma ba wani ɓangare na al'ada ba. Bugu da kari, mace-macen Covid-19 ya fi yawa a cikin tsofaffi kuma tuni ba shi da lafiya, kuma yana da rikitarwa ta canza ma'anar mace-mace (na, kamar yadda yake da, pathogen). Idan SARS-CoV-2 ne dakin gwaje-gwaje-gyara, kamar yadda wasu sun yi gardama, to, babban ƙoƙarin da ake yi na gina sa ido kan barazanar da ke faruwa ba za ta kasance daidai ba kuma ba za ta dace da aikin ba.
Sakamakon haka, dole ne mu tambayi kanmu ko wannan isasshiyar hujja ce ta gaggawar sabbin yarjejeniyoyin doka na duniya waɗanda za su iya karkatar da albarkatu masu yawa daga manyan nauyin cututtuka waɗanda ke haifar da haɗarin yau da kullun. G20 yana ba da shawararsa na sama da dala biliyan 31 a kowace shekara a cikin sabbin tallafin cutar sankara kan alkaluman mace-macen da ke tattare da hadarin lafiyar yau da kullun da yawancin mutane ke fuskanta. A zahiri, G20 yana tambayar ƙasashe masu kamuwa da cuta suna ɗaukar umarni mafi girma fiye da waɗannan ƙananan barkewar cutar don karkatar da iyakataccen albarkatun zuwa haɗarin tsaka-tsaki waɗanda galibi ana ganin barazana ce daga gwamnatoci masu ƙarfi.
Kamar yadda muka fada, manyan sauye-sauye na manufofi da kudade ya kamata su kasance bisa shaida. Wannan a halin yanzu yana da wahala a cikin al'ummomin kiwon lafiyar jama'a na duniya, saboda yawancin kudade da damar aiki yanzu suna da alaƙa da ci gaban shirye-shiryen rigakafin cutar. Haka kuma, akwai ji na gaba ɗaya a cikin da'irar manufofin kiwon lafiya na duniya cewa yana da mahimmanci a yi amfani da "lokacin bayan-Covid" ba tare da bata lokaci ba, tunda hankali kan annoba yana da girma kuma akwai yuwuwar samun yarjejeniyar siyasa.
Koyaya, don tabbatar da gaskiya, abin da ya wajaba shine samar da tabbataccen shaida kuma tabbatacce game da haɗarin barkewar cutar a cikin mahallin haɗarin lafiya gabaɗaya da nauyi. Wannan ba ya bayyana a cikin maganganun G20, wanda ke nuni da cewa shawarar da suke dogara da ita ko dai matalauta ce, gaggauwa, ko kuma a yi watsi da su.
Ya kamata a sami lokaci, da gaggawa, don gyara wannan gibin shaida. Ba wai don cutar ta gaba tana kusa da kusurwa ba, amma saboda tsadar samun abubuwan da ba daidai ba za su sami tasiri na dogon lokaci wanda zai iya zama da wahala a magance da zarar an fara sauye-sauyen tallace-tallace. A sakamakon haka, abin da yake da hankali shi ne a ba da shaida ta dakata don tunani, don gano gibin ilimi, magance su, da kuma aiwatar da ingantattun manufofin tushen shaida.
An ɗauka don komawa zuwa 2016-2017 0 fashewa. Ba a rubuta mace-mace ba, amma an samo shi a nan daga yanayin mace-macen yara dangane da bayanan Brazil (0.1203 Zika, 0.0105 baya, 0.1098 mai iya yiwuwa, a cikin 3308 Zika-tabbataccen ciki, wanda aka samo daga Paixao et al. (2022); https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2101195
b Rahoton HLIP na iya nufin yin la'akari da 2018 (f).
c Yawan mace-macen chikungunya yawanci kadan ne, galibi yana da alaƙa da mace-mace a cikin tsofaffi marasa lafiya. WebArchive ya haɗa da rahoton PAHO da aka share yanzu ya haɗa da mutuwar Caribbean 194 a cikin ƙananan tsibiri guda biyu, wanda zai iya zama kuskuren ɗabi'a. https://web.archive.org/web/20220202150633/https://www.paho.org/hq/dmdocuments/2015/2015-may-15-cha-CHIKV-casos-acumulados.pdf
d Matsakaicin kewayon da aka samo daga WHO.
e mura na Avian yana da ƙarancin mace-mace a cikin shekaru 20 - duba Hoto na 6.
f Ya haɗa da annoba guda biyu a cikin wannan shekarar; 45 a Indiya da 8 a Bangladesh.
g Cutar Ebola guda biyu ta 2018 ta kara a tebur, saboda wannan na iya zama abin da HLIP ta yi niyya lokacin da ake magana akan barkewar 2017.
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REPPARE (Sake kimanta Shirye-shiryen Cutar Kwayar cuta Da Ajandar Amsa) ya ƙunshi ƙungiyar darussan da yawa da Jami'ar Leeds ta kira.
Garrett W. Brown
Garrett Wallace Brown shine Shugaban Manufofin Lafiya na Duniya a Jami'ar Leeds. Shi ne Co-Jagoran na Sashen Bincike na Lafiya na Duniya kuma zai zama Darakta na sabuwar Cibiyar Haɗin gwiwar WHO don Tsarin Lafiya da Tsaron Lafiya. Binciken nasa ya mayar da hankali kan gudanar da harkokin kiwon lafiya na duniya, ba da kuɗaɗen kiwon lafiya, ƙarfafa tsarin kiwon lafiya, daidaiton lafiya, da ƙiyasin farashi da yuwuwar bayar da tallafi na shirye-shiryen rigakafin cutar da martani. Ya gudanar da manufofi da haɗin gwiwar bincike a cikin lafiyar duniya fiye da shekaru 25 kuma ya yi aiki tare da kungiyoyi masu zaman kansu, gwamnatoci a Afirka, DHSC, FCDO, Ofishin Majalisar Dinkin Duniya na Birtaniya, WHO, G7, da G20.
David Bell
David Bell likita ne na asibiti da lafiyar jama'a tare da PhD a cikin lafiyar jama'a da asali a cikin likitancin ciki, ƙirar ƙira da cututtukan cututtukan cututtuka. A baya can, ya kasance Darakta na Fasahar Kiwon Lafiya ta Duniya a Asusun Intellectual Ventures Global Good Fund a Amurka, Shugaban Shirin Malaria da Cutar Cutar Kwalara a Gidauniyar Innovative New Diagnostics (FIND) a Geneva, kuma ya yi aiki a kan cututtuka masu yaduwa da daidaita dabarun gano cutar zazzabin cizon sauro a Hukumar Lafiya ta Duniya. Ya yi aiki na tsawon shekaru 20 a fannin kimiyyar halittu da lafiyar jama'a na duniya, tare da wallafe-wallafe sama da 120. David yana zaune a Texas, Amurka.
Blagovesta Tacheva
Blagovesta Tacheva ƙwararren mai bincike ne na REPPARE a Makarantar Siyasa da Nazarin Duniya a Jami'ar Leeds. Tana da PhD a cikin Harkokin Ƙasashen Duniya tare da gwaninta a ƙirar cibiyoyi na duniya, dokokin kasa da kasa, 'yancin ɗan adam, da martanin jin kai. Kwanan nan, ta gudanar da bincike na hadin gwiwa na WHO game da shirye-shiryen cutar sankara da kiyasin farashin mayar da martani da yuwuwar samar da sabbin hanyoyin samar da kudade don saduwa da wani yanki na wannan kiyasin. Matsayinta a cikin ƙungiyar REPPARE shine ta bincika shirye-shiryen cibiyoyi na yanzu waɗanda ke da alaƙa da shirye-shiryen balaguron balaguro da ajandar mayar da martani da kuma tantance dacewarta ta la'akari da nauyin haɗari da aka gano, farashin dama da sadaukarwa ga wakilci / yanke shawara mai adalci.
Jean Merlin von Agris
Jean Merlin von Agris dalibi ne na REPPARE wanda ke samun tallafin PhD a Makarantar Siyasa da Nazarin Duniya a Jami'ar Leeds. Yana da digiri na biyu a fannin raya tattalin arziki tare da sha'awar ci gaban karkara na musamman. Kwanan nan, ya mai da hankali kan yin bincike kan iyaka da tasirin ayyukan da ba na magunguna ba yayin bala'in Covid-19. A cikin aikin REPPARE, Jean zai mai da hankali kan tantance zato da kuma ƙwaƙƙwaran tushen shaida da ke ƙunshe da shirye-shiryen balaguron bala'in duniya da ajandar mayar da martani, tare da mai da hankali musamman kan abubuwan da ke haifar da jin daɗi.
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