A bayyane yake cewa tattalin arzikin Amurka ya tsaya cak tun kafin ranar 28 ga Fabrairu, duk da cewa hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ta riga ta fara haifar da koma-baya. Amma sai yaƙi ya zo.
Za mu ga gobarar tattalin arziki mai girgiza duniya ta barke daga inda babu kowa a duniya, wanda shine maɓuɓɓugar kayayyakin da ke Tekun Farisa. Wannan ya haɗa da tsakanin kashi 20% zuwa 50% na dukkan kayayyakin yau da kullun da ke haifar da GDP na duniya, gami da ɗanyen mai, LPGs, LNG, ammonia, urea, sulfur, helium, da sauransu.
Saboda haka, kason kayayyakin masana'antu masu mahimmanci a duniya da ke fuskantar barazana a yanzu. Wannan ya haɗa da waɗanda ke ratsawa kai tsaye ta mashigin Hormuz da kuma rabon wadatar kayayyaki daga yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya mai faɗi wanda shi ma ke fuskantar cikas a Yaƙin Iran amma ana isar da su ta bututun mai, jirgin ƙasa, ko wasu hanyoyin ruwa kamar hanyar Tekun Bahar Maliya/Mashigin Suez.
Wannan rugujewar da ke faruwa a kullum a duniya game da kwararar kayayyaki zai yi tasiri sau biyu: Zai sa samarwa da fitarwa su faɗi nan take saboda hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ko ƙarancin wadatar su - duk da cewa yana ƙarfafa bankunan tsakiya su "taimaka" ta hanyar buga ƙarin kuɗaɗen hauhawar farashi.
Duk wannan ya haɗa da raguwar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, amma ba zai zama kawai irin wannan mummunan yanayi da ya faru a shekarun 1970 ba. Bayan haka, duk da hauhawar farashin da kashi 120% a cikin shekaru goma, ba a taɓa yin watsi da shi gaba ɗaya ba idan aka kwatanta da matsakaicin kuɗin shiga na iyali.
Kamar yadda ya faru, faduwar farashin kayayyaki na shekarun 1970 ya zo ne bayan abin da ya kasance Zamanin Zinare a matsayin mizanin tarihi tsakanin 1954 da 1969. A wannan lokacin, matsakaicin kudin shiga na iyali ya tashi daga $39,700 zuwa $66,870 ko kuma ta hanyar karuwar farashi mai yawa. 3.53% kowace shekara.
Ba shakka, wannan tafiya mai cike da arziki ta Main Street ta ragu sosai a lokacin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a shekarun 1970, amma layin shuɗi a cikin jadawalin da ke ƙasa ya ci gaba da ƙaruwa. Don haka tsakanin 1969 da 1980, matsakaicin kuɗin shiga na iyali ya ƙaru da kashi 0.61% a kowace shekara, amma alkiblar tafiye-tafiye har yanzu ta fi girma.
Matsakaicin Kuɗin Shiga na Iyali, 1954 zuwa 1980
Amma ga abin da ke faruwa. Tattalin arzikin Amurka na shekarun 1970 ya sami damar jure matsin lamba na hauhawar farashin mai, mai, da sauran matsalolin kayayyaki da kuma dakatar da wani babban bankin tarayya wanda aka sake shi daga sakamakon ladabtarwa na ma'aunin zinare na Bretton Woods. Babban ɓangare na hakan ya faru ne saboda jimillar bashin da ake bin tattalin arzikin Amurka bai kai matsayin da ake bukata ba.
Jimillar basussukan gwamnati da na masu zaman kansu a shekarar 1970 sun tsaya cak a kan $ 1.5 tiriliyan, wakiltar adalci 147% na GDP, kamar yadda aka nuna a jadawalin da ke ƙasa. Bugu da ƙari, na ƙarshe shine rabon riba na ƙasa na dogon lokaci (jimillar bashi da aka raba ta hanyar kuɗin shiga na ƙasa) ta hanyar lokutan tarihi na kauri da siriri, tun daga shekarar 1870.
Bugu da ƙari, ko da bayan babban gibin gwamnati na shekarun 1970 da kuma karuwar bashin da masu zaman kansu ke bayarwa sakamakon hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a cikin shekaru goma, jimillar bashin Amurka ya tsaya cak. $ 4.6 tiriliyan zuwa 1980. Wannan kawai 162% na GDP.
A takaice dai, tattalin arzikin Amurka a cikin wannan shekaru goma na durkushewar farashin kayayyaki ya fuskanci koma-baya sakamakon hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a lokacin zaman lafiya, amma har yanzu ba a shawo kansa da mummunan bashi ba. Kamar yadda jadawalin ya nuna, hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a cikin kasa bai yi wani tasiri ba sai bayan tsakiyar shekarun 1980, lokacin da Alan Greenspan ya hau kan kujerar shugabancin Fed ya kuma kaddamar da Amurka (da duniya) cikin shekaru arba'in na buga kudi wanda hakan ya kai ga babban bankin Keynesian.
Sakamakon haka, jimillar basussukan gwamnati da na masu zaman kansu suna cikin lambar akwatin gidan waya daban-daban a yau. Bashin da ake bin gwamnati yanzu ya kusa kaiwa $ 108 tiriliyan kuma yana da alaƙa da 343% na kudin shiga na ƙasa (GDP). Wato, yayin da muke shiga zamanin raguwar farashin kayayyaki na gaba, tattalin arzikin Amurka zai ci gaba da aiki juyi biyu ƙarin bashi idan aka kwatanta da kuɗin shiga fiye da yadda yake a shekarar 1970.
Wannan yana da bambanci. Matsakaicin riba na ƙasa a lokacin shekarun 1970 ya kai matsakaicin kusan kashi 153% na GDP, ma'ana da a ce an ci gaba da biyan bashin tun daga lokacin, da jimillar bashin da ke kan gaba yanzu ya zama ƙasa. $ 48 tiriliyan. Duk da haka, a halin yanzu, ainihin rabon leverage yana tsaye a kashi 342% na GDP da jimillar basussukan da ba a biya ba kusan. $ 108 tiriliyan.
Don haka lissafi yana gaya maka duk abin da kake buƙatar sani. Tattalin arzikin Amurka yanzu yana tafiya daidai Ƙarin bashin dala tiriliyan 60 fiye da yadda lamarin zai kasance idan aka kiyaye matsakaicin rabon riba na ƙasa na shekarun 1970. Kuma ko da a matsakaicin ƙimar riba mai nauyi na 5% a duk fannoni na tattalin arziki, hakan Dala tiriliyan 3 a kowace shekara na ƙarin kuɗaɗen riba, don haka ƙarancin kuɗin shiga da ake samu don saka hannun jari da kashe kuɗi na musamman.
Jimlar Amfani da Amurka: Bashi-zuwa-GDP, 1954 zuwa 2025
Ba shakka, masu buga kuɗi na Keynesian da masu kididdiga suna cewa "Ba za a yi gumi ba," kuma suna ɗaukar bashi a matsayin maganin ci gaba maimakon nauyi a kan kasuwanci da samar da kayayyaki. Amma muna roƙon kada mu ƙi amincewa, kuma hakan ya yi ƙarfi.
Sakamakon gwaji ya nuna akasin haka. Misali, ainihin ci gaban tattalin arziki (tallace-tallace na ƙarshe na kayayyakin cikin gida) yana da matsakaicin matsakaici 3.92% kowace shekara a lokacin zamanin 1954 zuwa 1970 lokacin da ƙimar riba ta ƙasa ta kasance ko ƙasa da yadda take a tarihi da kashi 150%. Sabanin haka, tun lokacin da aka fara rikicin kafin lokacin da aka fara rikicin a kwata na huɗu na 2007, ci gaban gaske ya ragu zuwa kawai 1.97%.
Haka ne. An rage yawan ci gaban da aka samu da kashi 50% gaba daya bayan da aka samu raguwar darajar hannun jari a fannin tattalin arziki a cikin shekaru 35 da suka gabata.
Bugu da ƙari, idan aka yi la'akari da tushen masana'antu na tattalin arzikin Amurka, ƙimar ci gaban ba wai kawai ta ragu ba, har ma ta tsaya cak.
Saboda haka, tsakanin 1954 da 1969, ma'aunin samar da masana'antu ya karu da ƙarfi. 4.5% a kowace shekara. Duk da haka, a cikin shekarun da suka gabata tun bayan rikicin kuɗi da bashi ya haifar na 2008, babu wani ci gaba da aka samu girma kwata-kwata a fannin masana'antu na tattalin arzikin Amurka.
A bisa ga ka'ida, jimillar yawan amfanin da aka samu daga sassan masana'antu, ayyukan samar da wutar lantarki, hakar ma'adinai, da makamashi ya kai babban ƙwai ɗaya mai kitse.
Fihirisar Samar da Masana'antu, 1953 zuwa 2025
Don haka tambayar ta sake dawowa. Me ya sa muka sami bashi mai yawa da ƙarancin ci gaba na gaske bayan da Fed ta yi cikakken iko kan Keynesian a ƙarƙashin Greenspan da magadansa da kuma waɗanda ya naɗa?
Amsar a zahiri ba ta da wani abin mamaki. Fashewar bashi daga $daga tiriliyan 1.5 zuwa dala tiriliyan 108 A cikin shekaru 55 tun daga shekarar 1970, ba wai saboda masu sayayya, 'yan kasuwa, da gwamnati sun kamu da sha'awar bashi ba, sai dai saboda babban bankin ya yi karyar farashinsa ta hanyar dannewa da kuma rage yawan riba da ake samu a kasuwa.
A lokaci guda, bashin "mai araha" da ya sauka a cikin lissafin kuɗi na Amurka bai shiga cikin babban ƙaruwar saka hannun jari mai amfani ba, amma maimakon haka ya haifar da hauhawar farashin kadarorin kuɗi na shekaru da yawa, hasashe mai amfani, da injiniyan kuɗi a ɓangaren kamfanoni. Sakamakon da aka samu shine saka hannun jari mara kyau da kuma ɓatar da jari, aiki, da sauran albarkatun tattalin arziki a wani babban matsayi.
Misali, idan karuwar da aka samu a cikin rabon riba na ƙasa tun daga lokacin da aka fara samun wadata a shekarun 1950 da 1960 ta kasance amfani mai amfani, da lallai ta bayyana a cikin takwararta - ƙimar saka hannun jari ta ƙasa.
Amma babu sigari a can, ba shakka. A gaskiya ma, kashi 8% na rabon jarin GDP (capex na kasuwanci da gidaje) yanzu ya ragu zuwa kashi 4% kacal. Wato, duk bashin da aka ƙara ya shafi kashe kuɗin gwamnati, amfani da shi a yanzu, da hauhawar farashin kadarorin kuɗi, ba kadarorin da za su iya samar da gudummawa ga ci gaba da matsayin rayuwa a nan gaba ba.
Kashi na Jarin Jiha na GDP: 1947 zuwa 2025
Wannan ya kawo mu ga faduwar farashin kayayyaki. Kamar yadda yake kafin 28 ga Fabrairu, ainihin ci gaban fitarwa ya riga ya tsaya cak. A cewar kididdigar GDP ta ainihi, ci gaban da ke tsakanin kwata na huɗu na 2025 da kwata na huɗu na 2025 ya bayyana a daidai lokacin da aka fara hasashen. 1.78%Amma kusan duk wannan ya faru ne saboda karuwar kudaden da ake kashewa a cibiyoyin bayanai da sauran kayayyakin more rayuwa na AI sakamakon kumfa da AI ke haifarwa.
Wannan babban karkatar da jari ba ya faru ne saboda amfani da fasahar AI mai ƙarfi ko kuma gaskiyar cewa an sami riba mai kyau akan jarin fasahar AI. A zahiri, kusan babu riba akan kadarorin fasahar AI kwata-kwata, tare da karuwar kashe kuɗi da ya kai ga sabon sigar "Gina shi kuma za su zo."
Amma bayan ranar 28 ga Fabrairu da kuma ƙaddamar da yaƙin da Trump ya yi a Tekun Fasha wanda ba za a iya cin nasara a kansa ba, wanda kuma zai jefa tattalin arzikin duniya cikin mawuyacin hali kamar babu abin da aka gani tun tsakiyar shekarun 1970, da gaske mun shiga cikin tsegumin da ke cike da rudani.
Farashin makamashi da mai sun riga sun yi tashin gwauron zabi. Mafi mahimmanci, man fetur mai aiki a tattalin arzikin Amurka - man dizal da manyan motocin sufuri, jiragen kasa, da taraktocin gona ke amfani da su - ya riga ya wuce matakinsa na 2022 a kan dala $5.40 a kowace galan kuma har yanzu yana ci gaba da hauhawa.
Haka kuma, a jajibirin lokacin shukar, farashin takin zamani ya ninka sau biyu, ma'ana za a rage yawan amfani da shi, yawan amfanin gona zai ragu, kuma farashin abinci zai yi tashin gwauron zabi nan da 4 ga watan Yuli lokacin da rahoton USDA ya yi hasashen yawan amfanin gona da za a samu a faɗuwar.
Kuma, ba shakka, babu wanda ya yi la'akari da cewa an ɗaure masana'antun sarrafa iskar gas na Qatar a kan ƙwanƙolin masana'antun semiconductor a Koriya ta Kudu da Taiwan, daga nan kuma zuwa ga dukkan sassan masana'antu na duniya. Duk wannan ta hanyar layin iskar gas na helium da aka samo daga masana'antun sarrafa halitta.
A takaice dai, wannan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki zai kara yawan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, duk da cewa kwangilolin fitar da kayayyaki daga masana'antu saboda hauhawar farashi da kuma karancin wadatar kayayyaki. Kasuwannin kwadago sun daskare kamar yadda suke a cikin mawuyacin hali na kulle-kullen tun daga watan Afrilun 2020, yayin da sabbin tallace-tallace na gidaje ke raguwa.
Wannan dai wani suna ne na raguwar farashin kayayyaki, amma a wannan karon Fed ba zai iya yin wani abu mai yawa game da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ko matsin tattalin arziki ba.
Hankalin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya ƙare yanzu, amma Fed ba zai iya dakatar da Volcker ba saboda tattalin arzikin Amurka yana cikin mawuyacin hali a ƙarƙashin bashin dala tiriliyan 60.
A lokaci guda kuma, yaƙin da kuma yadda farashin kayayyaki ya tashi a kasuwa, hakan na nufin ba zai iya kunna injinan buga littattafai don "ƙarfafawa" ba.
Don haka, kamar yadda muka ce: Wannan ba Stagflation na kakanka ba ne. Ba da daɗewa ba.
An sake bugawa daga Stockman's sabis na sirri
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David Stockman, Babban Malami a Cibiyar Brownstone, shine marubucin litattafai da yawa akan siyasa, kudi, da tattalin arziki. Shi tsohon dan majalisa ne daga Michigan, kuma tsohon Daraktan Ofishin Gudanarwa da Kasafin Kudi na Majalisa. Yana gudanar da shafin nazari na tushen biyan kuɗi ContraCorner.
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