Afrilu shine wata na bakwai kai tsaye wanda Y/Y CPI ya karu da fiye da kashi 6%, kuma akan wannan babban kasafin kuɗi na gidaje da tanadi na iya lalacewa. Idan an ci gaba har tsawon shekaru uku, 6.0% na hauhawar farashin kaya yana haifar da a 17% asarar ikon siye, bayan shekaru biyar asarar shine 27% kuma bayan shekaru 10 asarar shine 46%.
Don haka ainihin abin da rahoton na yau ya nuna shi ne, hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya riga ya kai wani wuri mai hatsarin gaske na wucin gadi. Kuma wannan shi ne kafin mu kai ga karuwar adadin lambobi biyu na shekara-shekara, wanda tabbas yana dagula bututun.
Canjin Y/Y a Babban Jigon CPI:
- Oktoba: 6.22%;
- Nuwamba: 6.81%;
- Disamba: 7.04%;
- Janairu: 7.48%;
- Fabrairu: 7.87%;
- Maris: 8.54%;
- Afrilu: 8.26%
Ɗaya daga cikin alamun ci gaba da hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki shine cewa duka kayan abinci da na matsuguni, waɗanda a hade suke lissafinsu 46% na nauyi a cikin CPI, ci gaba da tafiya zuwa sama cikin sauri.
Tun a watan Oktoban da ya gabata farashin abinci ya tashi daga kashi 5.33 bisa ɗari na Y/Y zuwa kashi 9.38 cikin ɗari a watan Afrilu. A lokaci guda, ma'aunin tsari ya haɓaka daga 3.38% zuwa 5.14%.
Canjin Y/Y A Fihirisar Abinci da Matsuguni na CPI, Oktoba 2021-Afrilu 2022
Ba lallai ba ne a faɗi, sanduna masu tasowa a sama ba ƙarshen tashin abinci da tsari bane. Misali, Y/Y ya tashi a cikin watan Afrilu a cikin OER (daidain hayar masu su) kuma fihirisar hayar hayar ta kasance 4.79% da 4.82%, bi da bi. Amma duk da haka ginshiƙin haya na Zillow wanda ake ɗauka ya tashi 17% a cikin watan da ya gabata.
Sakamakon lokacin da aka gina a cikin tsarin tattara hayar BLS, duk da haka, lokaci ne kawai har sai waɗannan abubuwan matsuguni na BLS guda biyu sun rufe gibin tare da bayanan tushen kasuwa. Kuma waɗannan abubuwa guda biyu kaɗai ke da kashi 31.4% na CPI kanun labarai.
Hakanan, abinci yana cikin tsakiyar hauhawar hauhawar farashin kaya tun daga shekarun 1970s. A tsawon shekara-shekara, waɗannan su ne wasu matsalolin da ke bayyana a cikin rahoton CPI na Afrilu:
Canje-canje na Shekara-Fiye da Shekara:
- Kifi: 13%;
- Naman sa: 14%;
- Kofi: 14%;
- Madara: 15%;
- Kaza: 15%;
- Naman alade: 18%;
- Kwai: 23%;
- Garin alkama: 33%;
Ba lallai ba ne a faɗi, alkalumman da ke sama suna wakiltar matsin lamba na hauhawar farashin kayayyaki waɗanda suka riga sun yi hanyar zuwa manyan kantunan kantuna. Amma isa gaba gaba zuwa PPI da fihirisar kayayyaki don abinci ya nuna cewa ma'aunin abinci na CPI ba su kai kololuwa ba.
A matakin kayayyaki, kididdigar abinci ta duniya har yanzu tana kan gaba 28% sabanin shekarar da ta gabata - adadi wanda zai iya yin sauri sosai kan ma'auni na shekara idan hauhawar farashin takin zamani ya haifar da raguwar amfanin gonakin da aka yi hasashe, sabili da haka an rage yawan amfanin gona a wannan kaka.
Daga baya a matakin farashin mai samarwa, jerin abubuwan da ke girma a farashin lambobi biyu na ci gaba da tsawo, ma'ana duk wani raguwar hauhawar farashin manyan kantuna yana da nisa.
Canjin Ƙa'idar Y/Y PPI:
- Spaghetti/Macaroni: 10.3%;
- Salatin: 12.0%;
- Madara: 16.4%;
- Ruwan lemu: 17.2%;
- Ham: 17.7%;
- Man shanu: 17.9%;
- Naman alade: 19.4%;
- Kaza: 20.3%;
- Naman sa: 24.2%;
- Sugar: 32.2%;
- Kwai: 33.8%;
- Karnuka masu zafi: 37.1%;
- Rago: 43.8%;
- Man waken soya: 60.7%;
- Kafe: 70.6%
Y/Y Canza Fihirisar Farashin Abinci ta Duniya
Anga zuwa iska a cikin gabaɗayan CPI kwanan nan ya kasance ɗan ɗan lokaci tsomawa cikin farashin sabis wanda ya faru a cikin watannin kulle-kulle masu nauyi na 2020. Idan aka kwatanta da haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar da ke kewaye da 2.5% yayin shekarun murmurewa tsakanin 2012-2019, abubuwan haɗin sabis na CPI sun ragu zuwa ƙasa kamar yadda suke. 1.3% akan tsarin Y/Y a cikin Janairu 2021.
Amma wannan fa'idar da aka samu sakamakon dakatar da ayyuka da gwamnati ta yi a wuraren taron jama'a yanzu ya yi kyau a cikin madubin kallon baya. Idan aka kwatanta da a 2.63% Ribar Y/Y a cikin Afrilu 2021, a watan da ya gabata jimillar sabis ɗin ya tashi 5.37% ko ninka adadin shekarun da suka wuce. Kuma ayyuka suna lissafin kashi 62% na CPI.
Canjin Y/Y A Fihirisar Sabis na CPI, 2012-2022
Misali mai haskakawa na wannan tsomawa na ɗan lokaci sannan kuma mai ƙarfi mai ƙarfi a cikin sashin sabis ana samar da shi ta hanyar juzu'in sabis na sufuri. Sakamakon rufe zirga-zirgar jiragen sama da yawancin zirga-zirgar ababen hawa a lokacin bazara da lokacin rani na 2020, ma'aunin ayyukan sufuri ya ragu zuwa-8.7% a ƙasan Mayu 2020 kuma ya kasance mara kyau akan tsarin Y/Y har zuwa Fabrairu 2021.
Amma yanzu sake buɗe ayyukan ya ba da izinin farashi da farashi fiye da murmurewa. Farashin jiragen sama kadai ya karu da kashi 33% a watan Afrilu, yayin da ayyukan sufuri gaba daya ya karu 8.5% ta hanyar Y/Y. Bugu da ƙari, labarin ba shi da yawa ribar Afrilu 2022 kamar yadda shine kawar da tasirin Covid-Lockdown na lokaci ɗaya wanda ya ɗauki nauyin CPI na ɗan lokaci.
Canjin Y/Y A Sabis na Sufuri, Janairu 2019 zuwa Afrilu 2022
Bangaren sabis na kiwon lafiya na tarihi na hauhawar farashi yana nuna irin wannan tsari a cikin spades. Bayan tashi a a 3.1% Adadin kowace shekara tsakanin 2012 da Fabrairu 2020, farkon zamanin Covid a zahiri ya haifar da fihirisar yin lalata.
Da farko, ya haura zuwa kashi 6.0% na Y/Y a watan Yuni 2020 don mayar da martani ga ambaliyar tsarin kiwon lafiya tare da shari'o'in Covid, amma sai ya shiga cikin wani yanayi mai kaifi yayin da aka ba da umarnin dakatar da manyan ayyukan kiwon lafiya na hankali ta hanyar Sintirin Cutar. Ya zuwa watan Yuni 2021 kasan ƙimar Y/Y ya faɗi daidai 0.8%, mafi ƙanƙanta matakin tun 1950s.
Ba lallai ba ne a faɗi, waccan anga zuwa iska a kan CPI ba a nufin ta dawwama ba. Tun daga Afrilu 2022, ribar da aka samu na shekara-shekara ya dawo zuwa 3.5%, kuma yana da kowane yuwuwar hawa sama, ba ƙasa ba.
Samun Y/Y A Cikin Sabis na Likitan CPI, 2017-2022
Haka lamarin yake musamman domin a halin yanzu adadin ma’aikata ya hauhawa. Ga sashin kula da lafiya gabaɗaya ƙididdige ƙimar aikin yi ya tashi 5.6% Y/Y a cikin Q1 2022 kuma yana tafiya mafi girma saboda riba mai lamba biyu a cikin farashi ga ma'aikatan jinya da sauran ma'aikatan kiwon lafiya a takaice.
Jadawalin da ke ƙasa yana nuna canjin mataki a yanzu. Tsakanin Q3 2009 da Q4 2019 farashin diyya na kula da lafiya ya tashi 2.0% kowace shekara. Za mu ƙiyasta cewa zuwa ƙarshen Q2 2022, duk da haka, ƙimar Y/Y zai ninka sau uku a 6.0% ko mafi girma.
Ganin cewa diyya ita ce mafi girman farashi ga ma'aikatan kiwon lafiya, ba za su sami wani zaɓi ba a cikin watanni masu zuwa sai dai haɓaka farashi da kudade daidai gwargwado.
Canjin Y/Y A cikin Fihirisar Kudin Aiki Don Lafiya da Ma'aikatan Taimakon Jama'a, 2009-2022
Gabaɗaya, rahoton CPI na Afrilu ya sake tunatar da mu cewa muna cikin sabon wasan ƙwallon hauhawa. A cikin babban makirci na tarihi, ya zama cewa 2012-2019 ya kasance abin ƙyama, saboda sauyin lokaci na samarwa zuwa sarƙoƙi masu rahusa na duniya da kuma babban bugu na kuɗi na duniya na manyan bankunan tsakiya wanda ya ba da isasshen jari mai arha don ababen more rayuwa na duniya, albarkatun ƙasa, masana'antu da saka hannun jari na sufuri.
Sakamakon haka, gabaɗayan CPI ya kai 1.6% a kowace shekara saboda rashin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a cikin abubuwan da ba a iya gani ba, ƙaramin yanayin yana ƙaruwa don kayayyaki da marasa ƙarfi da 2.6% a kowace shekara Y/Y yana ƙaruwa don ayyuka. Sabanin haka, nasarorin Y/Y sun ruwaito wannan AM na Afrilu 2022 suna cikin wurin shakatawa na daban.
Zamanin Fed na “lowflation” ya ƙare kuma an yi shi.
2012-2019 kowace shekara ta Haɓaka Ƙaruwar Afrilu 2022 Y/Y:
- CPI Durables: -1.0% vs.+14.0%;
- CPI marasa ƙarfi: + 0.3% vs. + 12.8%;
- Ayyukan CPI: + 2.6% vs. + 5.4%;
- Gabaɗaya CPI: +1.6% vs.+ 8.3%
Canjin Y/Y A CPI Da Manyan Abubuwan Sa, 2012-2022
A takaice, ba za mu iya ganin wani taimako na kusa ba daga cikakkiyar guguwar da aka kwatanta a sama. Duka rikicin China Covid-crackdown da yakin Ukraine za su ci gaba da haifar da sarkar samar da kayayyaki da kasuwannin kayayyaki, yayin da ayyukan cikin gida ke kan tseren mallakar manufofin kasafin kudi da ya haifar da karancin ma'aikata da sakamakon hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a bangaren sabis.
A gefe guda, Fed ya sanya gadonsa na wuce gona da iri na tsawon shekaru na bugu na kuɗi. Yanzu ba ta da wani zaɓi sai dai ta dage sosai da tsayi fiye da tsammanin Wall Street da Washington.
Tabbas, shugaban tururin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da aka kwatanta a baya zai sami sauƙi a ƙarshe. Wato, ta hanyar tsufa maganin koma bayan tattalin arziki da dozy a haka.
An sake fitowa daga marubucin site.
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David Stockman, Babban Malami a Cibiyar Brownstone, shine marubucin litattafai da yawa akan siyasa, kudi, da tattalin arziki. Shi tsohon dan majalisa ne daga Michigan, kuma tsohon Daraktan Ofishin Gudanarwa da Kasafin Kudi na Majalisa. Yana gudanar da shafin nazari na tushen biyan kuɗi ContraCorner.
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