Shin binciken guda ɗaya zai iya ba da haske - ba da gangan ba - cikin duk abubuwan da ke gaba na cutar?
- Rarraba mutuwar marasa Covid a matsayin mutuwar Covid
- Rashin son rai na "lafiya mai lafiya".
- Rashin son zuciya a cikin nazarin tasirin maganin rigakafi
- Mutuwar rigakafin gajeren lokaci
- Adadin wadanda suka mutu na Covid vis-à-vis adadin wadanda suka mutu na fargaba da “ragewa”
Babu ɗayan waɗannan batutuwa da aka ambata a cikin wani bincike daga Isra'ila, wanda masu bincike daga Ma'aikatar Lafiya ta Isra'ila suka gabatar. Amma duk da haka ana iya koyan su duka daga bayanansu.
A cikin duniyar tunanin Haklai et al. Babu wani abu da ke faruwa ba daidai ba, gwargwadon abin da ya shafi Covid. Babu kuskuren rarrabuwa na mace-mace, babu son zuciya da ke gurbata kiyasin tasirin rigakafin, kuma babu mace-mace sakamakon rushewar rayuwa ta al'ada. Mummunan bayanan su yana ba da shaida sabanin haka.
Abubuwan biyu na binciken marubutan sun bayyana su da kyau:
Da farko, "Mun bi jimlar yawan mace-mace da kuma adadin mace-mace marasa COVID-19 a Isra'ila tsakanin Maris 2020 da Oktoba 2021 idan aka kwatanta da matsakaicin adadin a cikin 2017-2019, don tantance yanayin mace-mace mai yawa, da COVID-19 da wadanda ba COVID-19 mace-mace ba. da wata…” [takalmi]
Misali na:
Na biyu, "Wani rukunin da aka yi wa allurar akalla sau daya zuwa 31 ga Maris 2021 an bi diddigin mace-mace a cikin watanni bakwai masu zuwa idan aka kwatanta da watannin da suka dace a cikin 2017-2019."
Misali na:
- Rarraba masu mutuwa
Marubutan sun rubuta: “….tsakanin Nuwamba 2020 da Maris 2021, [yawan mace-mace marasa COVID-19] sun yi ƙasa sosai [fiye da matsakaicin a cikin 2017-2019]…”
Dubi tsayin sandunan rawaya yayin igiyar Covid a waccan lokacin hunturu (rectangle da aka ƙara.) Waɗannan sanduna suna nuna mutuwar marasa Covid waɗanda suka yi ƙasa da yadda ake tsammani (layi ja). Me yasa mutuwar wadanda ba na Covid ba za su ragu yayin balaguron Covid? Annoba ko a'a, waɗanda ya kamata su mutu "ka'ida" daga dalilai daban-daban ba a tsira ba.
Amsar ita ce mai sauƙi, mafi sauƙi fiye da "ƙaurawar mace-mace" wanda marubutan suka gabatar. Mutuwar da ba ta haifar da Covid ba an danganta su ga Covid. Mutuwar "tare da" Covid an kidaya su azaman mutuwar Covid (sanduna shuɗi). Shi ya sa marubutan suka gano “rauni” na wadanda ba na Covid-19 ba (sandunan rawaya ba sa kaiwa ga jan layi).
Yaya tsananin rashin rabe-rabe a wancan lokacin sanyi?
Jadawalin mashaya ya nuna cewa yana da tsanani, kuma Ma'aikatar Lafiya ta Isra'ila ta ba da amsa mai ƙima akan gidan yanar gizon ta.
Tsakanin Disamba 2020 da Maris 2021, an sami rahoton mutuwar COVID 3,299 a Isra'ila amma Babban Ofishin Kididdiga (CBS) ya kiyasta mutuwar 1,650 kawai - rabin adadin. Ga kowane mutuwar Covid na gaskiya a cikin Isra'ila akwai wani abin da ake kira "mutuwar Covid" wacce ba ta da adadin mace-mace, wanda ke nufin cewa mutumin zai mutu, ba tare da la'akari da ingantaccen gwajin PCR ɗin su ba. Ya kamata a kirga duk waɗannan mutuwar a matsayin marasa Covid, an canza su daga sanduna shuɗi zuwa sandunan rawaya.
Abin sha'awa shine, wannan kuma shine matakin kuskure a Sweden a lokacin lokacin hunturu na 2020-21: kusan 7,600 sun ba da rahoton mutuwar Covid, idan aka kwatanta da mutuwar sama da 3,600.
Menene ma'anar irin waɗannan matakan ba daidai ba?
Na farko, a lokacin hunturu na 2020-21 Isra'ila ta yi aiki a matsayin dakin gwaje-gwaje na Pfizer don nazarin lura da tasirin rigakafin, wanda ya dogara da rahoton Covid, asibiti, da mace-mace. Nazari masu tasiri - a kan abin da aka yiwa biliyoyin alurar riga kafi - yakamata a janye. Babu wani babban ɗan bita-bita da zai ba da izinin buga wani bincike tare da ɓarna kashi 50 na ƙarshen mace-mace. Ba za a iya amincewa da sakamakon ba.
Na biyu, an yi kiyasin yawan mace-macen Covid.
Na uku, rarrabuwar mace-mace da ta wuce kima tsakanin Covid da sakamakon yunƙurin rage rashin amfani ana yin kuskure. Za mu koma wannan batu a karshen.
2. Lafiyayyen son zuciya
Marubutan sun rubuta:
"Ba mu ga wata shaida da ke nuna illar cutar ba kamar yadda aka nuna ta hanyar mace-mace a cikin rukunin mutanen da aka yi wa allurar akalla sau daya, cikin watanni bakwai. Akasin haka, mun sami raguwar adadin mace-mace [idan aka kwatanta da 2017-2019]."
Matsakaicin adadin da ke ƙasa yana kwatanta yawan mace-mace a cikin ƙungiyar da aka yi wa alurar riga kafi da mace-mace a shekarun baya. Ko da maganin Pfizer ya hana duk mutuwar Covid, muna sa ran lura da adadin adadin 1, yana maido da mace-macen ƙungiyar zuwa ƙimar asali na 2017-2019. Ba a tsammanin allurar rigakafin cutar za su rage mace-mace daga abubuwan da ba na Covid ba.
Marubutan sun rubuta cewa "Ƙananan ƙimar ƙila ya kasance saboda ƙungiyar da aka yi wa alurar riga kafi kasancewar yawan jama'a mafi koshin lafiya..." kuma suna kokawa tare da bayanin ƙirƙira.
Gaskiya mai sauki ce. Muna lura da "kyakkyawan ra'ayin rigakafin rigakafi," wanda zaku iya karantawa game da shi wasu wurare. Cire son zuciya na iya canza kiyasin tasirin rigakafin daga kashi 85-95 zuwa null or mafi muni.
Takaitacciyar taƙaitacciyar lokaci:
Nazarin tasiri na rigakafin rigakafi daga Isra'ila ya ƙunshi aƙalla manyan ra'ayoyi guda biyu: mummunan rabe-rabe na ƙarshen mace-mace da rashin lafiyar allurar rigakafi. Ba a ambace su a cikin takarda ba. Kuma biyu sauran son zuciya mai yiwuwa ya yi aiki.
3. Kara yawan mace-mace
Yaƙin neman zaɓe a Isra'ila ya fara ne a ƙarshen Yuli 2021, daidai gwargwado ga hauhawar Covid (Delta).
Marubutan sun rubuta: "…an fara harbin farko ga jama'a daga karshen Yuli 2021, wanda ya taimaka wajen shawo kan wannan kalaman nan da Nuwamba 2021."
Wannan magana ce mai ban sha'awa. Shin suna ɗauka cewa raƙuman ruwa na Covid ba su ƙarewa ta halitta?
Ko mai haɓaka yana da wani tasiri mai mahimmanci akan mutuwar Covid shine debatable. A gefe guda kuma, akwai shaidar mace-mace na ɗan gajeren lokaci, kamar yadda bayani ya gabata.
Marubutan sun lura da abin lura guda ɗaya na musamman, wanda na haskaka a cikin adadi na ƙasa (kibiya):
"A cikin watan Agusta 2021 ne kawai adadin wadanda ba COVID-19 ke mutuwa ba ya fi na 2017-2019, 5% (95% CI 1-9%) mafi girma ga yawan jama'a."
Wannan wuce gona da iri ya dace da mace-macen alurar riga kafi a cikin mafi yawan mutane masu rauni, wanda aka fara yi wa alurar riga kafi.
Yawan mace-mace da suka kai kashi 5 cikin dari fiye da wadanda ba na Covid-200 ba ba za a iya ƙididdige su daga bayanansu na wata-wata ba, amma yana iya kusan kusan 2021. Idan ba a ƙididdige adadin waɗanda ba na Covid-XNUMX ba kamar yadda mutuwar Covid ta ci gaba a cikin Agusta XNUMX, yawan mutuwar da ba na Covid ba ya kamata ya yi girma.
Wani wuri, Na tattauna rashin tabbas kuma na kammala cewa adadin masu haɓakawa a cikin watan Agusta 2021 na iya zama 200 zuwa 400, wanda ke da ra'ayin mazan jiya.
4. Yawan mutuwar masu tsoron tsoro da "raguwa"
Marubutan sun rubuta:
"Tsakanin Maris 2020 da Oktoba 2021 an sami mutuwar mutane 84,124 a Isra'ila wanda ya yi sanadiyar mutuwar 8953 idan aka kwatanta da matsakaicin 2017-2019, dan kadan ya fi adadin wadanda suka mutu sanadiyar COVID-19 a wannan lokacin, 8114."
Na farko, wannan shine kashi 12 na yawan mace-mace a cikin watanni 20, mafi muni fiye da a cikin Sweden mara kullewa.
Na biyu, waccan adadin “dan kadan mafi girma” na yawan mace-mace fiye da mutuwar Covid shine kashi 10 cikin dari (839/8114). Amma kamar yadda muka sani yanzu, adadin mutuwar Covid na gaskiya ya yi ƙasa da 8,114 da aka danganta da mutuwar Covid.
Ƙananan lissafi:
A cikin lokacin binciken, yawan mace-macen da ba na Covid-3 ba ya ragu da kusan kashi 2017 bisa dari fiye da matsakaicin a cikin 2019-2 (Table 2,200 a cikin labarin.) Wannan kusan 2,200 ne "bacewar" wadanda ba na Covid-2,200 ba, ko kuma mutuwar 839 da aka danganta ga Covid. Idan muka ƙara 3,000 (ba a rarraba) zuwa XNUMX (bambanci tsakanin yawan mace-mace da mutuwar Covid da aka ruwaito), za mu sami kusan mutuwar XNUMX da suka wuce waɗanda Covid ba a lissafa su ba. Wannan shine kashi ɗaya bisa uku na yawan mace-mace a Isra'ila(3,000 / 8,953).
Amma bari mu zaɓi tsarin ra'ayin mazan jiya na zato:
Mutuwar 1,650 ne kawai ya kamata a canza daga 8,114 da aka ruwaito mutuwar Covid zuwa rubric marasa Covid. Wannan shine adadin wadanda ba na Covid-2020 suka mutu a cikin hunturu na 21-1 waɗanda aka yi kuskuren danganta su ga Covid, dangane da yawan mace-mace (Sashe na XNUMX, na sama.)
Bari mu ƙara mutuwar Covid 150 waɗanda wataƙila an rasa a lokacin ƙarami, galibi maras amfani.
A kan waɗannan zato, kashi 12 cikin 8,953 na yawan mace-mace a cikin Isra'ila (mutuwar 9) an raba tsakanin kashi 6,614 na yawan mace-mace na Covid (mutuwar 3) da kashi 2,339 cikin dari waɗanda ba na Covid-26 sun mutu (mutuwar XNUMX). Abubuwan da ba na Covid-XNUMX sun kai kashi XNUMX na yawan mace-mace ba.
A takaice, tsakanin kashi ɗaya cikin huɗu da kashi ɗaya bisa uku na yawan mace-mace a Isra'ila a lokacin binciken ba Covid.
Me ya jawo haka?
Wani ɗan jaridar Ba’amurke ya taɓa rubuta cewa yawan mace-macen da ba a lissafa ba yana da alaƙa da “yanayin cutar.” Jami'ai a Isra'ila da sauran wurare ne suka haifar da waɗannan yanayi: firgici, fargaba, kulle-kulle, rugujewar rayuwa ta yau da kullun, rigakafin tilastawa - tare da duk sakamakonsu, gami da mutuwa. Babu wani abu da ya faru a ciki annoba ta baya. Yiwuwar cewa za a sake aiwatar da ayyukan lalata a cikin wata annoba ta gaba, da sunan lafiyar jama'a.
A cikin wani sashe mai suna "Tsarin manufofin Lafiya" marubutan sun rubuta:
"Mun gano cewa a cikin Isra'ila yawan mace-mace ya yi kama da mace-macen da ake dangantawa da mace-macen COVID-19, sabanin sauran kasashe da yawa."
Ya kamata a sake fasalin wannan jumla, tare da maye gurbin "wanda aka danganta" tare da "lalata da kuskure." Dangane da kamanni, duba menene kamanceceniya ta gaskiya yayi kama (gungura zuwa tebur na ƙarshe, shafi na dama.)
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Dokta Eyal Shahar farfesa ne a fannin kiwon lafiyar jama'a a fannin cututtukan cututtuka da kididdiga. Binciken nasa yana mayar da hankali ne akan ilimin cututtuka da kuma hanyoyin. A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, Dr. Shahar ya ba da gudummawa sosai ga hanyoyin bincike, musamman a fannin zane-zane da kuma son zuciya.
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