Dokta Timothy Kelly ne ya rubuta wannan labarin.
Gabatarwa
"Kuna tsammanin da an samu raguwar mace-mace gaba daya idan ba mu da rigakafin?"
Steven Bartlett ya yi wa Dr. Aseem Malhotra wannan tambayar yayin wata hira da Bartlett's podcast. Diary na CEO. Dr. Malhotra ya amsa da "Eh."
Cikakken Gaskiya, ƙungiyar duba gaskiya, tana da rubuta hukunci akan amsar Malhotra, yana mai cewa: "Ƙarya. Akwai bayyanannun shaida cewa allurar rigakafin sun ceci rayuka fiye da yadda suke kashewa."
Duk da yake muna godiya da cikakkiyar kulawa ga wannan muhimmiyar tambaya, hukuncin nasu bai kai ga yanke hukunci ba, ganin cewa har yanzu kimiyyar likita ba ta tantance amsar ta gaskiya ba.
Sashe na I: Ƙaunar Tabbaci - Rushe Da'awar Tasirin Alurar
Da'awar cewa "Akwai bayyanannun shaida" na fa'idodin rigakafin Covid-19 da ya zarce illolinsu" yana misalta haɗari mai haɗari na rikitattun abubuwan da ke tattare da likitanci.
Matsayin Zinare da Ya Bace: Gwaje-gwajen Rarraba Rarraba (RCTs)
A cikin magungunan shaida, RCTs da aka gudanar da kyau waɗanda ke auna yawan mace-mace sune ma'aunin zinare don tantance tasirin sa baki gaba ɗaya. Don allurar rigakafin Covid-19, babu irin waɗannan gwaje-gwajen da suka nuna fa'idar mace-mace duka. Ba a tsara gwaje-gwaje na asali ko kuma ba su da ƙarfi don gano bambance-bambance a cikin kowane dalili na mace-mace, kuma lokutan bin diddigin sun yi gajeru don ɗaukar tasirin dogon lokaci. Idan ba tare da wannan mahimmancin shaida ba, da'awar fa'ida ta fa'ida ba ta daɗe ba a mafi kyawu kuma bata da muni.
Matsalolin Nazarin Dubawa
Idan babu ingantaccen bayanan RCT, masu binciken gaskiya sukan juya zuwa nazarin lura. Koyaya, waɗannan karatun suna cike da yuwuwar son zuciya waɗanda ke ƙima da fa'ida da ƙima da cutarwa:
Muguwar Zabe: Ƙaunar mai amfani da lafiya da tasirin da ya dogara da lokaci yana haifar da fa'idodin allurar rigakafi da kuma rufe yuwuwar cutarwa saboda bambance-bambance na asali a cikin ƙungiyoyin rigakafin da canza yanayin karatu.
Rarraba Ba daidai ba: Ƙaunar tsira da ɓarna matsayin allurar rigakafi a farkon lokutan allurar ta wucin gadi suna haɓaka ƙididdige inganci da ƙima da lahani.
Rarraba Son Zuciya: Kurakurai na rarraba matsayin rigakafin suna faruwa ta hanya guda, tare da yin kuskuren waɗanda aka yi wa allurar a matsayin marasa alurar riga kafi. Wannan yana haifar da cututtuka da cutarwa a cikin wadanda aka yi wa alurar riga kafi ba a rarraba su ga rukunin da ba a yi musu rigakafi ba, yin la'akari da fa'ida da kuma rashin la'akari da cutarwa.
Bayar da Rahoto: Rahoto na tsare-tsare game da munanan abubuwan da suka faru biyo bayan allurar rigakafi saboda dalilai kamar rashin ganewa, korar yuwuwar abubuwan da ke da alaƙa da allurar, ko fargabar illolin ƙwararru yana haifar da rashin ƙima game da haɗarin rigakafin da wuce gona da iri.
Bias Babi: Buga fifiko da haɓaka karatun da ke nuna ingantaccen tasirin rigakafin, haɗe tare da danne ko rashin buga karatun da ke nuna babu wani tasiri ko mummunan tasiri, yana karkatar da jigon shaida da fahimtar jama'a.
Modeling Mirage
Masu binciken gaskiya sau da yawa suna dogara ga nazarin ƙirar ƙira don tallafawa iƙirarin ban mamaki na rayuka da aka ceta, suna haɓaka al'amurran nazarin lura:
- Ƙara Kurakurai: Ƙananan kurakurai a cikin bayanan shigarwa ko zato suna haifar da hasashe mara kyau
- Ƙarfafawa: An rage hadaddun sauye-sauye na zahirin rayuwa zuwa ma'auni waɗanda ƙila ba za su iya ɗaukar mahimman bayanai ba
- Tabbatar da Bias: Za'a iya kunna samfuran da gangan (ko da gangan) don samar da sakamakon da ake tsammani ko ake so
- Rashin Ƙarya: Ba kamar gwaje-gwajen da aka sarrafa ba, yawancin tsinkayen ƙira ba su da gaske
- Yawan amincewa: Madaidaicin lambobi suna haifar da ma'anar tabbaci na ƙarya
A ƙarshe, nazarin ƙirar ƙira yakan yi amfani da ƙididdiga na fa'idar da aka karɓa daga nazarin lura don ƙirƙirar ƙirar ƙima da aka daidaita don ƙara haɓaka waɗannan fa'idodin da aka ƙima. Ta hanyar fitar da miliyoyi, suna samar da ƙididdiga marasa gaskiya waɗanda ba za a taɓa iya tantance su ta ingantaccen gwajin kimiyya ba.
Girman fa'ida daga allurar Covid-19 da alama ya yi ƙasa da wanda binciken kallo da ƙirar ƙira ke nunawa. Don tantance tasirin allurar rigakafin, duka sanannun illolin da illolin da ba a san su ba dole ne a yi la'akari da su a hankali kan wannan fa'ida mara tabbas.
Sashe na II: Ƙimar Shaidar Cutar
Ganin rashin tabbas kuma mai yuwuwa girman fa'ida, yana da mahimmanci a yi la'akari da yuwuwar cutarwar rigakafin Covid-19. Ra'ayin ƙwararrun Dr. Malhotra cewa ƙila alluran rigakafin sun haifar da asarar rayuka ga al'umma abin dogaro ne kuma abin karewa ne bisa nazari daban-daban da ma'anarsu.
Sake nazarin Bayanan Gwaji na Clinical
A sake nazari na asali na gwaji na asibiti na mRNA Covid-19 alluran ya bayyana ƙarin adadin munanan abubuwan da suka faru na 1 a cikin 800. An ayyana munanan abubuwan da suka faru a matsayin ko dai mutuwa, asibiti, ko naƙasa na tsawon lokaci, mafi yawansu tabbas za su rage tsawon rai. Idan aka yi la’akari da cewa an yi amfani da biliyoyin allurai a duk duniya, wannan yana nuna ƙila miliyoyi sun sha munanan lahani ta hanyar rigakafin rigakafi. Wannan adadin umarni ne na girma sama da adadin da aka yarda da shi na cutarwa daga wasu alluran rigakafi (kusan 1-2 a cikin miliyan daya).
Nazari na Dubawa da Binciken Gawa
Babban adadin mummunar cutarwa da aka gano a cikin gwaje-gwajen asibiti an tabbatar da su nazari na lura daga tsarin sa ido a cikin Amurka da Tarayyar Turai. Bugu da kari, nazarin autopsy sun tabbatar da cewa adadi mai yawa na mace-mace da ke faruwa a cikin kwanaki 30 bayan allurar rigakafin ta Covid-19 ta haifar da alurar riga kafi, wanda ke nuna babu shakka cewa allurar na iya haifar da mutuwa.
Yana da kyau a lura cewa yayin da binciken lura ya ci gaba da yin kima da fa'ida, lokaci guda suna yin la'akari da lahani saboda dalilai kamar kyamar mai amfani da lafiya, son rai na ɗaba'a, ba da rahoto, da kuma rarrabuwa.
Hanyoyin Mutuwar Yawan Jama'a
Idan alluran rigakafin Covid-19 sun ba da fa'ida fiye da cutarwa, za mu sa ran ganin raguwar mace-mace a cikin al'ummar da aka yi wa alurar riga kafi bayan 2021 idan aka kwatanta da 2020. Duk da haka, kusan dukkanin al'ummomin da ke da babban maganin mRNA sun dandana. mafi girma yawan mace-mace a cikin 2021 fiye da na 2020, sabanin tsarin da aka saba biyo bayan annoba. Wadannan muguwar mace-macen sun ci gaba da wanzuwa fiye da 2021, yana kara nuna damuwa game da tasirin rigakafin da ke gudana.
Haka kuma, tun daga shekarar 2022, fa'idar mace-mace gabaɗaya daga allurar rigakafin Covid-19 ya yi ƙasa da ƙasa, ganin cewa bambance-bambancen sun zama. kasa m, yawancin jama'a sun kamu da cutar, kuma ingancin rigakafin ya bayyana raguwa sosai. Duk da haka, mummunan cutar da alluran rigakafin ke haifarwa mai yiwuwa ya kasance dawwama, yana nuna haɓakar fa'idar lahani akan lokaci.
Sashe na III: Binciken Lalacewar Amfanin Yanzu
Yayin da rashin tabbas ya kasance ba tare da gwajin gwajin asibiti na Covid-19 na gwajin asibiti ko mace-mace ba, muna iya ƙoƙarin yin nazarin fa'ida ta yau da kullun ta amfani da bayanan da ke akwai:
- Sake nazari na gwaje-gwajen asibiti sun gano cewa a cikin gwajin asibiti na asali adadin munanan abubuwan da suka faru a cikin rigakafin ya fi kariyar da ake bayarwa game da asibiti na Covid-19.
- Amfani da Hukumar Tsaro ta Lafiya ta Burtaniya bayanan lura akan tasirin maganin rigakafi da adadin mummunar cutarwa daga gwaje-gwajen asibiti, sun gano ga mutane sama da 90 (ƙungiyar haɗari mafi girma), yin allurar rigakafin mutane 7,000 zai hana asibiti guda ɗaya na Covid-19 wanda ke buƙatar iskar oxygen amma yana haifar da mummunan bala'i 7.
- Matsakaicin fa'ida-zuwa cutarwa yana ƙara zama mara daɗi ga ƙungiyoyin ƙanana bisa ga UKHSA data, tare da waɗanda ke ƙasa da 45 suna buƙatar kusan allurar rigakafi miliyan guda don hana asibiti guda ɗaya
La'akari da Da'a a Ci gaba da Rigakafi
Ko da farkon gabatarwar rigakafin Covid-19 ya ba da fa'ida mai yawa na mace-mace (wanda har yanzu ba shi da tabbas), yana da ƙarancin yuwuwar suna ba da fa'ida ta hanyar yau da ci gaba. Ba tare da ingantaccen gwaji na asibiti ba, za mu kasance cikin rashin tabbas game da ma'aunin fa'ida na gaskiya. Ci gaba da ba da saƙon rigakafi tare da bayanan da ba a sani ba kuma mai yuwuwar cutarwa mara kyau bai dace ba.
Kammalawa: Kira don sake tantancewa
Halin daɗaɗɗen yanayin nazarin haɗarin-amfani na rigakafin mRNA yana nuna buƙatar ci gaba, tsauraran binciken kimiyya da buɗe, tattaunawa ta gaskiya game da tasirin manyan ayyukan likita. Matsayin Dr. Malhotra cewa allurar rigakafin Covid-19 na iya yin tasiri mara kyau bisa ga shaidar da ake da su da kuma manyan rashin tabbas da suka rage. Dangane da wadannan matsalolin, da Hope Accord an halicce shi. Wannan koke, wanda Dr. Malhotra da marubutan wannan labarin ke kafa abokan haɗin gwiwa, ta yi kira da a dakatar da allurar rigakafin Covid-19 da kuma komawa ga ƙa'idodin ɗabi'a waɗanda aka yi watsi da su yayin bala'in.
Dubun dubatar mutane sun riga sun rattaba hannu kan yarjejeniyar, wanda ke nuna damuwa game da ci gaba da amfani da wadannan alluran rigakafin ba tare da cikakkun bayanan tsaro ba. Muna gayyatar duk waɗanda suke da ra'ayinmu su zo tare da mu don sanya hannu Yarjejeniyar Fata da goyan bayan sake tantance manufofin rigakafin Covid-19.
Don ƙarshe, hadaddun tambayar likitanci game da tasirin rigakafin Covid-19 akan duk-mutuwar mace-mace a tsakanin al'umma ta kasance ɗaya daga cikin rashin tabbas. A cikin wannan mahallin, cikakken hukuncin hukunci maras tabbas yana nuna game da matakin hubris a fassarar kimiyya. Lokacin da aka tuntube su game da hukuncin da basu da inganci a kimiyance, Cikakkun Fact sun ci gaba da dogaro da matsayinsu, suna ambaton nazarin ƙirar ƙirar roba iri ɗaya da bayanan lura marasa inganci daga ainihin labarinsu. Wannan shari'ar tana misalta babban damuwa: ƙungiyoyin bincikar gaskiya galibi suna ƙara sauƙaƙa rikitattun tambayoyin likitanci kuma suna gabatar da tabbaci inda babu. Jama'a sun cancanci ƙarin tsattsauran ra'ayi da ƙima na gaskiya na irin waɗannan rikitattun tambayoyin kimiyya.
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Dokta Joseph Fraiman likita ne na gaggawa a New Orleans, Louisiana. Dokta Fraiman ya sami digirinsa na likitanci daga Kwalejin Kiwon Lafiya ta Weill Cornell da ke New York, NY kuma ya kammala horar da shi a Jami'ar Jihar Louisiana, inda ya yi aiki a matsayin Babban Mazauni da kuma Shugaban Kwamitin Kame Cardiac da Kwamitin Kula da Cututtuka.
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