Duban Kusa da Mutuwar Mutuwar Jamus ⋆ Cibiyar Brownstone Manfred Horst

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Lokacin da Firayim Ministan Burtaniya, Boris Johnson, ya ce a cikin Oktoba 2020 cewa matsakaicin shekarun mutuwar Covid ya wuce tsawon rai, ya kasance a fili ga wani abu. Abin takaici ne, kuma mummunan kuskure na ma'auni na tarihi, cewa shi - da wasu da yawa - ba su fitar da tunaninsu zuwa ga ƙarshe na hankali ba, balle a yi aiki da su.

Mai zuwa shine fassarar da daidaitawa na labarin wanda ya bayyana a shafin yanar gizon Jamus "Achse des Guten" kwanaki kadan kafin a bayyana kalaman Johnson a bainar jama'a ta bakin tsohon mai ba shi shawara Dominic Cummings.

Lambobin sun fito ne daga kididdigar Jamusanci; Yawan rabon da aka samu daga waɗancan lambobin suna kama da juna a duk faɗin yammacin duniya.

A cikin shekaru 150 na baya-bayan nan, dan Adam ya samu nasarori da dama a yakin da yake yi da cututtuka da kisa, da mace-macen jarirai da mata masu juna biyu. Don haka ya ɗaga matsakaicin shekarun mutuwa a yammacin duniya daga shekaru 35 zuwa kusan shekaru 80 (1).

Shekaru tamanin ne matsakaita. Wasu mutane har yanzu suna mutuwa tun suna ƙanana, amma an yi sa'a sun yi ƙasa da na zamanin da. Jimlar mutane 939,520 ne suka mutu a Jamus a cikin 2019, tare da rarraba mai zuwa a cikin ƙungiyoyin shekaru (Source: Ofishin Kididdiga na Tarayya, 2):

Teburin Mutuwar Jamus 2019:

Age Group	Yawan Mutuwa	kashi

0-9 shekaru	3,242	0.35%
10-19 shekaru	1,188	0.13%
20-29 shekaru	3,095	0.33%
30-39 shekaru	6,534	0.70%
40-49 shekaru	15,575	1.66%
50-59 shekaru	56,967	6.06%
60-69 shekaru	114,470	12.18%
70-79 shekaru	202,955	21.60%
80-89 shekaru	350,365	37.29%
> Shekaru 90	185,129	19.70%

Jimlar	939,520	100,00%

Tare da tsufa na yawan jama'armu, jimillar adadin mace-mace yana ƙaruwa akai-akai a cikin 'yan shekarun nan (3). Duk da haka, matsakaicin shekarun mutuwa da kuma rarraba kashi a tsakanin ƙungiyoyin shekaru sun kasance dawwama (4,5); Hakanan suna kama da kamanni a duk ƙasashen yammacin duniya (misali Amurka, duba 6).

Kusan shekaru daya da rabi yanzu, muna cikin damuwa da tsoro tare da alkaluman yau da kullun na "mutuwar corona" (7). Rarraba shekarun wadannan mace-mace "tare da coronavirus" (darikar hukuma, watau mutuwar mutumin da ke da tabbataccen gwaji, ba lallai ba ne daga cutar huhu) a Jamus har zuwa 29/06/2021 ya yi kama da haka (source: Robert Koch Institute, 8):

Teburin mutuwa "tare da coronavirus", Jamus 2020/21:

Age Group	Yawan Mutuwa	kashi

0-9 shekaru	15	0.02%
10-19 shekaru	11	0.01%
20-29 shekaru	82	0.09%
30-39 shekaru	234	0.26%
40-49 shekaru	703	0.78%
50-59 shekaru	3,050	3.36%
60-69 shekaru	8,234	9.08%
70-79 shekaru	18,872	20.72%
80-89 shekaru	40,935	44.55%
> Shekaru 90	19,159	21.13%

Jimlar	90,664	100,00%

Mai karatu mai sha'awar yana iya kwatanta adadin shekarun rabon waɗannan "mutuwar corona" da wanda ke cikin yawan jama'a kuma ya yi tambayoyi masu zuwa:

- Ta yaya "mutuwar corona" ta bambanta da teburin mace-mace na halitta?

- Ga waɗanne ƙungiyoyi ne, idan akwai, zai yi ma'ana don bincika matakan tsawaita rayuwa?

- Wadanne kungiyoyin shekaru ne ya kamata a yi la'akari da su a cikin irin wannan tattaunawa game da yiwuwar tsawaita rayuwa?

Wannan shine abin da rabon kaso tare da ƙungiyoyin shekaru a cikin ƙungiyoyin biyu ya duba ta zayyana:

Ya kamata kuma dole ne mutum ya yi wasu ƴan tambayoyi:

Bayan kusan shekara ɗaya da rabi na gwajin jama'a, shin ba za mu iya ɗauka lafiya ba cewa ingancin gwajin PCR babban samfurin wakilci ne na yawan jama'a?
Ganin cewa haka lamarin yake, shin ashe mutuwar “tare da coronavirus” (watau tare da ingantaccen gwajin PCR) suna kama da wani bangare ne na al'adar mutuwa da ba za a iya magance ta ba a Jamus?
Shin wannan ba shine ainihin hasashe ba cewa kowane ƙwararren masanin kididdiga ko cututtukan cututtukan da ya cancanci gishiri ko nata zai faɗi - idan ba don gaskiyar cewa mun shiga wani zamani na ban mamaki na jama'a ba?

Hakanan, waɗannan rarrabuwar kaso suna kama da kamanni a ko'ina cikin duniya - komai matakan da aka ɗauka akan Coronavirus, duba misali a Sweden (9).

Tun da kwayar cutar ba ta yin komai ga jarirai, yara da matasa - ko kuma watakila saboda an gabatar da su zuwa wasu ƙananan gwaje-gwaje - mutanen "masu dauke da Corona" sun kai matsakaicin shekaru wanda ya ɗan fi na sauran jama'a.

A cikin sharuddan ƙididdiga, coronavirus (ko - maimakon - ingantaccen gwajin PCR) shine a bazuwar canzawa dangane da sakamakon "mutuwa" - kamar ƙafar 'yan wasa ko sa safa ja. Tabbas, munanan nau'ikan cututtukan numfashi da suka haifar da / tare da SARS-CoV-2 suna wanzu. Tabbas, magani ya wajaba don taimakawa da tallafawa kowane ɗayan mutanen da abin ya shafa. Tabbas, shari'o'in mutum ɗaya na iya zama mai karya zuciya. Tabbas, ana iya shimfiɗa ƙarfin NHS a lokacin hunturu (sun kasance). Matsakaici duk da haka, "mutuwar corona" da ta bar duniyar nan a lokaci guda, tare da Corona ko daga (ko tare da) wata cuta ko wata cuta. Mu ba masu mutuwa ba ne. A matsakaici, muna mutuwa a matsakaicin shekarun mutuwa.

Duk waɗannan ƙididdigar da ake zargin sun yi hasarar rayuwa (10) sun yi iƙirarin cewa ƙungiyar (rukunin) mutanen da suka mutu "tare da Corona" da sun kai matsakaicin shekaru fiye da shekaru 90, idan ba don cutar ba. Wannan maganar banza ce. Mutum ba zai iya ba kuma dole ne ya canja wurin sauran tsawon rayuwar mutum m yana da shekaru 80 zuwa rukuni na matattu mutane. Bayan wannan hanya, zai yiwu a ayyana kowane mai canzawa bazuwar (jajayen safa misali) ya zama haɗari na mutuwa. (11)

Wasu marubuta (12) sun gabatar da hasashen cewa haɗarin mace-mace saboda (ko tare da) Corona daidai yake a cikin rarraba shekarun sa, amma (mafi yawa) ƙarin ga haɗarin mace-mace na yau da kullun: Don yin magana, kwayar cutar tana aiki kamar ɗan ta'adda wanda ya kashe mutane 100.000 tare da rarraba shekaru iri ɗaya da teburin mace-mace a cikin jama'a. Idan wannan gaskiya ne, idan har hakan zai yiwu, da mun ga karuwar mace-macen gabaɗaya a duk ƙasashe - wanda ba mu da shi (13). Kamar yadda muke magana game da mutanen da suka kashe (ko tare da) cututtukan numfashi wanda tsarinsu yana da sauƙi a mafi yawan lokuta, ba na mutanen da 'yan ta'adda suka kashe ba, za mu sake yin tambaya mai mahimmanci Me ya sa ya kamata su rayu fiye da sauran jama'a, menene zai riga ya ƙaddara wannan ƙungiyar ta musamman (na gwajin Corona) zuwa tsawon rayuwa fiye da matsakaicin rayuwa? A'a, wannan ikirari ma ba zai yiwu ba.

Mutanen da ke cikin shekarun 50-70 suma suna mutuwa (ko "tare da") Corona? Mai karatu da abin ya shafa na iya tambaya ko "al'ada" ya mutu yana da shekaru 55 ko 60. A'a, ba haka ba ne; kowane lamari yana da ban tausayi (kuma ya cancanci cikakkiyar kulawar magani). Duk da haka, mu 'yan siyasa ya kamata ku sani cewa babu makawa yakan faru wani lokaci, kuma kuna buƙatar kwatanta da bincika lambobi akan matakin yawan jama'a, maimakon jin daɗi game da lamura ɗaya.

A cikin kowace al'umma, akwai ko da yaushe 'yan shekaru 50-70 da suka mutu da rashin alheri - wannan ba makawa ne a cikin yanayin ɗan adam. Wasu daga cikin waɗannan masu shekaru 50-70 koyaushe sun mutu daga (ko tare da) kamuwa da cuta ta numfashi (kamar wanda coronavirus ke haifarwa). Tambaya mai mahimmanci don haka ita ce ko Kara Mutanen da ke cikin wadannan shekarun suna mutuwa saboda Coronavirus fiye da baya. Amsar ita ce A'a saboda:

1) Ba mu lura ba kuma ba mu lura da yawan mace-mace mai yawa a cikin waɗannan rukunin shekaru ba.

2) A cikin sharuddan kashi, yawan mace-macen Corona a cikin waɗannan rukunin shekarun ba wai kawai ya fi girma ba, amma yadda ya kamata ya yi ƙasa da wanda ke cikin yawan jama'a.

Ƙarshe shi ne cewa Coronavirus ba shi da tasiri kan mace-mace na ƙungiyoyin shekaru 50-70. Kuma wannan ƙarshe ɗaya ne ga duk ƙungiyoyin da ke ƙasa da shekaru 80. Kamar yadda 80 shine matsakaicin shekarun mutuwa a cikin yawan jama'a, gabaɗayan ƙarshe don haka shine cewa Coronavirus ba shi da tasiri kan mace-macen jama'a.

Tabbas kimiyya da ilimin ƙwayoyin cuta sun sami ci gaba a cikin watanni 16 da suka gabata, kuma wataƙila ɗan adam zai amfana da wannan a nan gaba. Koyaya, a cikin 2020 da 2021, "mutuwar corona" za ta mutu, a matsakaici, kusan lokaci guda. "A matsakaita" ba yana nufin cewa duk wanda aka azabtar da Corona zai mutu a lokaci guda ba tare da kwayar cutar ba - abubuwa da yawa da sun bambanta a duniya ba tare da Corona ba. Duk da haka, yana nufin cewa, a matakin yawan jama'a, mace-mace da ba zai bambanta sosai ba. Muna cikin gaban al'ada kuma ba za a iya kaucewa mace-mace yawan jama'a ba. Mu ba masu mutuwa ba ne. A matsakaici, muna mutuwa a matsakaicin shekarun mutuwa.

Tun daga Maris 2020, al'ummominmu suna ɗaukar wannan al'ada kamar bala'i ne. Koyaya, babu wani ɗan gajeren lokaci na siyasa ko na zamantakewa da zai iya hana yawan mace-macen jama'a a matsakaicin shekaru a halin yanzu kusan shekaru 80. Haka kuma ba zai iya hana ci gaba da mu (musamman a lokacin sanyi ba) da rigakafin rigakafi da ƙwayoyin cuta na numfashi da suka canza. Da mun san wannan. Yawancin masana da 'yan siyasa (wataƙila Boris Johnson a cikinsu) tabbas sun san shi a ƙarshe a ranar 12 ga Maris 2020, lokacin da Italiyawa suka ba da sanarwar a bainar jama'a game da mutuwar 2,003 na farko na "Corona" (mafi yawa daga Bergamo da kewaye): Matsakaicin shekaru 80.3 shekaru, duk ("tare da wasu yuwuwar keɓancewa biyu") suna fama da matsanancin halin da ake ciki (12).

Ba zato ba tsammani, babu wani allurar rigakafi da zai iya hana mace-macen jama'a na yau da kullun - kuma ina tsammanin da yawa daga cikin tsoffin abokan aikina a cikin masana'antar harhada magunguna sun san wannan. A matsayin abin da ake buƙata don kowane izinin tallace-tallace - har ma da irin wannan gaggawa kuma don haka masu haɗari - ya kamata hukumomin da suka tsara sun buƙaci nazarin mace-mace (watau tabbacin ƙarancin adadin mace-mace a cikin rukunin da aka yi wa allurar idan aka kwatanta da ƙungiyar placebo).

Irin wannan binciken da zai yi wuya ya samar da kyakkyawan sakamako ko da yake, saboda ba za a iya hana mace-macen ɗan adam na yau da kullun a matsakaicin shekarun mutuwa ba.

Madadin haka, an ayyana shaidar raguwar alamun sanyi na gama gari tare da ingantaccen gwaji a matsayin ƙarshen asibiti mai dacewa kuma an buga shi tare da babban fanfare (13), da raguwar yanayi a lokuta masu inganci da mace-mace - wanda aka riga aka lura a lokacin rani na ƙarshe - ana bikin a matsayin nasarar rigakafin. Jamusanci (da sauran) suna da'awar masu kama, a kan mafi kyawun yanke hukunci, cewa karatun da aka yi wa magungunansu na '' sun tabbatar da cewa sun hana 100% 14. (XNUMX)

Koyaya, koda an yiwa dukkan al'umma rigakafin cutar SARS-CoV-2, mutane za su ci gaba da kamuwa da mura da mura, nau'ikan nau'ikan za su ci gaba da faruwa a cikin tsofaffi da raunin rigakafi, kuma wani takamaiman adadin shekara-shekara na matsakaita 80 zai bar mu kamar koyaushe - tare da coronavirus, ko tare da wasu ƙwayoyin cuta na numfashi da suka canza.

Idan sakamakon dan Adam na martanin siyasa da na al'umma game da wannan kwayar cutar ta numfashi ba ta kasance mai ban tsoro ba, za mu iya kusan kallo da jin daɗin komai a matsayin abin ban tsoro. Wataƙila a nan gaba ba da nisa ba, (da fatan har yanzu - ko kuma!) 'Yan adam na iya koyan darussa masu amfani daga wannan ɓangaren dystopian. Musamman, muna buƙatar haɓaka rashin yarda da rashin amincewa da wani nau'in masana kimiyya waɗanda ke yada tsoro da damuwa tare da tsinkayar tushen su, da mabiyan su na siyasa.

Magana:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7646031/#eci13423-sec-0005title

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3259)

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Cross-Section/Corona/Society/population_death.html

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Mawallafi

Manfred Horst

Manfred Horst, MD, PhD, MBA, yayi karatun likitanci a Munich, Montpellier da London. Ya shafe mafi yawan aikinsa a masana'antar harhada magunguna, kwanan nan a cikin sashen bincike & ci gaba na Merck & Co/MSD. Tun daga 2017, yana aiki a matsayin mai ba da shawara mai zaman kansa don harhada magunguna, fasahar kere-kere da kamfanonin kiwon lafiya (www.manfred-horst-consulting.com).

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