Kwanan nan mun sami damar shigo da Shugaban Fed ɗin mu a wani liyafa a NYC. Sakonmu zuwa ga Jay Powell shine cewa akwai dalilai da yawa don dakatar da rage yawan kudin ruwa, amma dangane da rufewar gwamnati na yanzu, daya daga cikin hukunce-hukuncen da ya fi jan hankali shi ne cewa manufofin kudi masu arha na Fed sun lalata duk wani nau'in horo na kasafin kudi a Amurka.
Musamman, mun tunatar da shi cewa ainihin ƙimar bashin tarayya na balloon ya kasance da gaske sifili ko mara kyau ga mafi yawan lokaci tun lokacin da ake kira Babban Rikicin Kuɗi. Bi da bi, wannan yana nufin cewa zaɓaɓɓun ƴan siyasa na yanzu a Washington an yaudare su da yawa-damuwa kamar yadda ake yi- dangane da tsadar gibin kasafin kuɗi na gaske.
Anan ga haɓakar haɓakar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki akan tsaro na ma'auni na Uncle Sam, bayanin kula na Baitulmali na shekaru 10. A haƙiƙa, yawan kuɗin da aka daidaita-haɓaka hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya ƙaru -0.30% a duk tsawon lokacin daga 2011 zuwa 2025 zuwa yau. Ko a yanzu yana tsaye a +1.0%.
Don haka, mun ba da shawara ga Powell cewa Fed yana gaya wa zaɓaɓɓun 'yan siyasa cewa yawan bashin gwamnati ba shi da tsada. Tabbas, Shugaban Powell bai lumshe ido ba, yana mai cewa kamar yadda zai yiwu, "Muna mai da hankali ne kawai kan abin da ya fi dacewa ga tattalin arziki."
Har ila yau, a yau, don haka, abin da ya fi dacewa ga tattalin arziki a cewar Jay Powell da ma'aikatan firintocin kuɗaɗen sa har yanzu wani yanki ne na 25, tare da alamar ƙarin zuwa. Wato, Fed ya bayyana akan hanya don tura ƙimar riba ta gaske a ƙasa da sifili saboda babu wata shaida kwata-kwata cewa yawan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya ragu a ƙasa da 3.00%, kuma, kamar yadda muka ambata a baya, yana da alama a zahiri yana haɓaka tun Afrilu.
Daidaita Haɓaka Haɓaka Haɓaka Haɓaka A Taskar Amurka na Shekaru 10, 1986 zuwa 2025
Dangane da wannan, muna ba da amintaccen mu na 16% trimmed ma'anar CPI. A cikin shekarar da ta gabata adadin canjin shekara-shekara na canjin wata-wata yana ta motsawa a cikin +2% zuwa +4% kewayo, kuma yanzu saurin motsi na Y/Y ya koma mafi girma shima, ana aikawa a 3.2% a cikin Satumba. Ba lallai ba ne a faɗi, yadda mafi girman wannan matakin hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ke da kyau ga tattalin arzikin Main Street shugaban Fed bai faɗi ba - ko da yake a bayyane yake ci gaba da rage ƙimarsa yana nuna masu kashe kashen Washington da masu hasashe marasa tushe a cikin canyons na Wall Street don ci gaba da ci gaba.
Sa'an nan kuma, Fed ya ci gaba da yin jigilar kaya tare da hanyar layin shuɗi na jadawali na tsawon shekaru goma masu zuwa, ikon siyan dala da aka samu ko adana a yau zai zama cents 72 kawai a ƙarshen. Ta yaya hakan zai ba da kwarin gwiwar abubuwan da suka dace na samar da kuzari - tanadi, saka hannun jari, haɗarin haɗari, ƙoƙarin aiki, da kasuwancin kasuwanci - bai faɗi ba. Kuma don dalili mai ma'ana: Karanta bayanin bayan taro na yau ko kowane bambance-bambancen da aka yi amfani da shi na tsawon watanni da shekaru na ƙarshe kuma ba za ku sami wata magana ba ga bangaren wadata ko Dokar Say, kwata-kwata.
Sabanin haka, Fed duk game da sarrafa bukatar Keynesian ne, kamar dai tattalin arzikin Amurka ya kasance daidai da wasu manyan baho: Aikinsa shi ne ya zubar da shi cike da bakin ciki tare da “cikakkiyar bukatu” ta ci gaba da ruguza kudaden ruwa a duk lokacin da aka samu alamar kashe kudi.
Amma, ba shakka, wannan shawarar gabaɗaya ta samo asali ne daga maganar banza da Farfesa JM Keynes ya buga a cikin yanayi daban-daban na shekarun 1930.
Har ma a lokacin, shekarun 1930 ba su soke Dokar Say ba ko kuma ta yi watsi da kowace hanya axiom ɗin da ke samar da nasa bukatar. Babban Mawuyacin shekarun 1930, a zahiri, shine kawai safiya-bayan da aka rushe babban tarin bashi da wuce gona da iri wanda ya samo asali a lokacin Babban Yaƙin da kuma lokacin kumfa na 1920s na ƙasashen waje. Bi da bi, duka bunƙasar tattalin arziƙin yaƙi da haɓakar fitar da kayayyaki na shekarun 1920 sun kasance ne sakamakon haɓakar lamuni mai dorewa wanda ya haifar da ɗorewa ta hanyar buguwar kuɗi a babban bankin ƙasar jarirai.
Y/Y da Ƙaruwar Wata-wata na Shekara a cikin 16% Ma'anar Gyaran Ma'anar CPI, Maris 2024 zuwa Satumba 2025
A kowane hali, jadawali na farko a sama shine bindigar shan taba. A cikin lokacin 1985 zuwa 2000, haɓakar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na shekaru 10 da aka daidaita ya kai matsakaicin maki 380, amma hakan bai rage tattalin arzikin Main Street ta kowace hanya ba. Haɓaka tattalin arziƙin gaske kamar yadda aka auna ta ainihin tallace-tallacen ƙarshe na samfuran cikin gida ya kai matsakaicin 3.65% a kowace shekara a cikin shekaru 15.
Sabanin haka, tun lokacin da masu buga kudi na Ginin Eccles suka yi tsalle shark a lokacin da kuma bayan Babban koma bayan tattalin arziki babu taba sigari komai. Duk da matsakaicin da aka ambata -0.3% a cikin ƙimar haɗin kai na gaske bayan 2010, haɓaka na gaske ya ƙaru kawai 1.89% a kowace shekara tun lokacin da aka sami kololuwar rikice-rikice a cikin Q4 2007.
Don haka akasin Jay Powell, za mu ce yin tattaki na haƙiƙanin riba a cikin duniyar tattalin arziƙin ƙasa mara kyau ba “abin da ke da kyau ga tattalin arzikin” kwata-kwata. Iyakar abin da wani zagaye na arha bashi yana da kyau a zahiri shine don saukar da mafi munin sha'awar masu kashewa a cikin Beltway da speculators akan Wall Street.
Ba abin mamaki ba, saboda haka, kamar yadda ainihin GDP (layin ja) ya karu da kashi 40 kawai tun daga Q4 2007, bashin Tarayya (layin blue) ya karu da 300% kuma ƙimar mafi girman 1% na gidaje (layin kore) ya karu da 175%. Don haka lokaci na gaba da muka ga Powell za mu tunatar da shi cewa, a, kuɗi mai sauƙi yana da kyau sosai ga masu kashewa da masu hasashe a kowane ƙarshen Acela Corridor. Amma game da tattalin arzikin Babban Titin-ba da yawa ba!
Fihirisar GDP na Gaskiya, Bashin Jama'a da Ƙimar Taimako Na Babban 1% Tun Q4 2007
An sake bugawa daga Stockman's mai zaman kansa site
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David Stockman, Babban Malami a Cibiyar Brownstone, shine marubucin litattafai da yawa akan siyasa, kudi, da tattalin arziki. Shi tsohon dan majalisa ne daga Michigan, kuma tsohon Daraktan Ofishin Gudanarwa da Kasafin Kudi na Majalisa. Yana gudanar da shafin nazari na tushen biyan kuɗi ContraCorner.
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